ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Long-Term Demand Forecasting-An Approach

An Approach D N Sen Gupta This article does not present any new theories or techniques of long-term demand forecasting. It only describes how Metal Box of India adapted a few well known and extremely simple techniques to prepare a long term forecast of demand for its products, ie, consumer packages of different types made from tinplate, aluminium, paper and board, and plastics.

The Blue-Collar Worker-A Sociological Analysis

A Sociological Analysis Baldev R Sharma This paper examines the hypothesis that workers with an urban background are more highly committed to industrial work than those with a rural background. On the basis of a case study of workers in an automobile plant in Bombay, the author finds that this hypothesis, accepted for long by anthropologists among others, is not correct.

For Teachers Only

Review of Management November 1968 the reaction of the target audience and the final results could have been quite different. Media-wise the exclusion of film in this intra-media comparison appears somewhat surprising. The authors incidentally inform us that as many as 74 per cent in all six villages combined were found not to have seen any films. This may be largely became of the distance or accessibility factor. Dermanent cinemas being all situated THIS work is a largely unrevised memorandum submitted to the Education Commission which received evidence from 1964 to 1966. The memorandum was submitted in January 1966 and its value as a guide to India's educational future has been destroyed in a maelstrom of disastrous events; the devaluation of July 1966, the second successive poor monsoon and harvest in 1966-67 and, finally, the sharp fall in availability of non-project aid since the end of 1967, which is now likely to continue throughout the period of the revised Fourth Plan (1969-1974). The underlying assumptions of the education and manpower projections were based on the overall growth rates calculated in "Notes on Perspective of Development, India 1960-61 to 1975-76" and Pitambar Pant's 1965 revision and extension of these figures to 1986 in his Kale Memorial Lectures "Three Decades of Transition, India 1956-1986", Throughout the volume one searches in vain for the suggestion that the authors thought of testing the sensitivity of their assumptions to different overall growth rates (i e, 5 per cent 5.5 per cent, and 6.0 per cent a year). Did they really think in the autumn of 1965 that 6.6 per cent a year was the most likely growth rate for the Indian economy between 1960-61 and 1975-76? It is also disturbing that there is no justification at all of the choice of 20 years as the projection time period. The uncertainty of long-term planning in developing economies might have influenced the authors to limit their projection to 10 or 15 years. The authors do concede that "Estimates of economic growth over long periods are in the main town, But in the experience of commercial houses who have either used touring talkies or gone into village interiors with mobile vans, the film with its vivid combination of sound and sight has proved to be an extremely effective medium of communication, breaking as it does the barriers of literacy and language, of old habits and attitudes. In a serious painstaking study such as the authors have under- necessarily tentative, and it is hard to judge their implications for employment". In the event, all speculation concerning the empirical value of the projections has ceased a mere two and a half years after the memorandum was submitted. The Indian economy is extremely unlikely to grow at 6.6 per cent a year from 1960-61 to 1975-76 even if a persistent agricultural miracle manifests itself.

Profit Reporting by Diversified Companies

S K Bhattacharyya The recent emergence of a large number of conglomerate companies with diversified product lines is largely due to acquisitions of other companies and the setting up of new activities as divisions within existing companies, Initial official opposition to such diversification has been overcome by court rulings and the attractions of higher profitability.

Share Prices, Dividends and Earnings

S C Srivastava Retained earning has no significant influence on the determination of share prices in India, To thai extent investment in shares does not appear to be growth-oriented.

Motivation for Action

Sanat Lahiri Communications in India: Experiments in Introducing Change by Joseph E Kivlin, Prodipto Roy, Fredrick C Fliegal and Lalik K Sen, National Institute of Community Development, Hyderabad, 1968; pp 56; price Rs 4.

An Export Bank

Motivation for Action Sanat Lahiri For Teachers Only Angus Hone Blue-Collar Worker Baldev R Sharma Demand Forecasting D N Sen Gupta Profit Reporting S K Bhattacharyya Share Prices and Earnings S C Srivastava Review of Management, is published four times a year, on the last Saturday of February, May, August and November.

Farmers Response to Price Movements-Case of Rape and Mustardseed

Case of Rape and Mustardseed T Maitra Whether cultivators in developing countries respond to price changes in a definite way has been a subject of controversy.

HYVP for Rice-Performance in a Bengal District

Performance in a Bengal District S Sengupta M G Ghosh This paper examines the record of the High-Yielding Varieties Programme for rice in Birbhum district of West Bengal One-fifth of the State target of area to be brought under the HYVP in kharij 1968-69 is in this district. The performance of the HYVP in this district is, therefore, important not only as an indicator of the prospects for the Programme, but also from the point of view of achieving the target of additional paddy production in the State.

New Agricultural Strategy Revisited

The New Agricultural Strategy is based on concentration of high-yielding varieties of seeds and complementary inputs on selected water-assured areas. The decision to concentrate resources marked a major departure from earlier agricultural policies.

Final and Revised Crop Estimates-An Analysis of Discrepancies

Time lags are common in the collection and compilation of crop-production statistics. It takes about two years to revise the 'final' estimates, framed soon after the harvest, on the basis of complete returns of production.

Predatory Capitalism in Indian Agriculture

Daniel Thorner "Welfare Capitalism" is the principal positive recommendation for agriculture offered by Gunnar Myrdal in his important treatise, "Asian Drama". Yet his own analysis of the agrarian scene in con- temporary India suggests that the type of capitalist farming most likely to spread is predatory rather than welfare-oriented. It follows logically that Indian agricultural workers can promote their own welfare best by organising themselves into powerful labour federations.

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