Reserve Bank of India

The non-banking financial companies play a critical part in credit intermediation in India, with an active participation in credit lending to the segments that are largely left out by the formal banking channels. These include micro, small and medium enterprises, agriculture sector, and other unbanked sectors. Hence, they play a noteworthy role in the last-mile delivery of financial services and overall financial inclusion. Against the backdrop of the recent liquidity crisis, the financial health of selected 15 large NBFCs and the capital requirement regulations towards the sector are examined.

The gradual evolution of industrial credit in India in the last three decades is examined against the backdrop of significant structural change in ownership and regulation in the Indian banking sector. The impact of institutional changes in the Indian banking sector during the post-liberalisation phase, especially in the form of the gradual winding up of development financial institutions, on the institutional credit flow to industry is analysed. There is a significant impact of the changing ownership structure of banks on the sectoral allocation of credit. Based on the analysis of sectoral credit flow from the commercial banks and specialised term-lending institutions in India over the last three decades, the need for creating a professional talent pool within the commercial banks for term-lending as well as lending to small entrepreneurs is underscored.

The recent surge in stock prices in India sparked off a debate on a possible bubble in the Indian stock market. The attempt here is to detect and date stamp bubbles present, if any, in the Indian stock market using a recursive econometric technique. This technique can help identify bubbles as they emerge, not just after they have exploded. This study does not indicate any explosive price behaviour in the Indian stock market. Thereby, the presence of any bubbles during the study period is not detected. The sharp decline and the subsequent recovery of the stock prices during the past 15 months was most probably an overreaction to the pandemic.

Contrary to several gloomy forecasts, the Indian banking sector has been surprisingly resilient in the face of the pandemic. This is because corporates, which account more than half the loans, are in better shape and banks are well-capitalised. This bodes well for loan growth and bank performance post the pandemic.