ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles By Recession

Electoral Cycle and the Union Budget 2023–24

The fiscal deficit and expenditure composition in terms of revenue and capital expenditure in a pre-election budget capture the net effect of the compulsion of reducing taxes and levies, and spending more, particularly on welfare measures, partly to attract votes. An analysis of the 2023–24 budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections shows that the current National Democratic Alliance government has managed such compulsions better than not only the two previous United Progressive Alliance governments but even the preceding NDA government.

Need for Credit Resilience Score in India

Paired with the borrower score/ rating, a credit resilience score would better equip the fi nancial institutions to account for borrower resilience and make credit decisions accordingly. The requirement for CRS in India helps credit to fl ow uninterruptedly during good and bad times. Recognising the parameters used in the existing credit score for individuals and corporate credit rating, a framework for the development of CRS is suggested.

IMF's Call for Complacence

The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook of April 2016 bodes that emerging market economies, including India, are at risk of sudden capital outflows. The IMF once again makes a case for its conventional, much-discredited tools to manage this risk. To repeat these recommendations, that on many occasions have only worsened crises, is to encourage complacency.

Delinking Housing Cycles, Banking Crises, and Recession

The nexus of housing boom-busts, banking crises, and economic cycles is not unique to the last crisis and has been increasingly present in each of the major banking crises since the break-up of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s. Housing is a politically charged issue. A safer housing market, via planned fiscal intervention to steady supply, would do more to make the financial system safer than all of the other recent initiatives put together. Cheaper finance without cheaper homes only deepens housing inequality.