ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Monetary Policy Dilemmas at the Current Juncture

Monetary policies in advanced economies and emerging markets face quite different challenges at the current juncture. In the advanced countries, current dilemmas derive from the normalisation of unconventional monetary policies. The short-term dilemma is to determine when to start exiting extraordinary policies and selecting appropriate tools, as conventional tools may not be very relevant during this phase. The medium- to long-term challenges relate to the sequencing, pace and mechanics of normalisation. Monetary policy in emerging markets needs to cope with the familiar dilemmas of fiscal dominance, the growth-inflation trade-off and the "impossible trinity." With fiscal parameters in control, and food and commodity prices subdued, the chief dilemma currently confronting emerging markets involves a trade-off between targeting divergent domestic and external cycles. Although they are now better placed to absorb a sudden stop, the impact is likely to be differential, with those with weaker macroeconomic parameters suffering greater pain.

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Modelling

In recent years Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models have come to play an increasing role in central banks, as an aid in the formulation of monetary policy (and increasingly after the global crisis, for maintaining financial stability). DSGE models, it is claimed, are less a-theoretic than other widely used models such as VAR, or dynamic factor models. As the models are "structural," they are supposed to be immune to the Lucas Critique, and thus can be "taken to the data" in a meaningful way. However, a major feature of these models is that their theoretical underpinnings lie in what has now come to be called as the New Consensus Macroeconomics. Using the prototype real business cycle model as an illustration, this paper brings out the econometric structure underpinning such models. A detailed analytical critique is also presented together with some promising leads for future research.

The New Keynesian Paradigm of Monetary Policy

While Keynes was sceptical of the efficacy of monetary policy , the current mainstream macroeconomic consensus , "New" Keynesian macroeconomics , accords it primacy in the process of maintaining both price and output stability. This consensus depends on three relationships: demand is inversely dependent on the interest rate, inflation is positively related to the output gap and the central bank can control interest rates to achieve an optimum combination of price and output. This paper presents a theoretical critique of this consensus from an "old" Keynesian perspective since Keynes had raised fundamental objections to each of the three relationships .

Continuous Revisions Cast Doubts on GDP Advance Estimates

Two recent press releases by the Central Statistics Office substantially revise the new series of National Accounts Statistics. The new releases are more than just routine updates, and entail methodological changes and incorporate new sources of data, perhaps in response to various critiques. Yet, on comparing the advance estimates released with past such estimates, the CSO's latest growth projections once again turn out to be far too optimistic.

Argentina's Crisis: Causes and Consequences

During the east Asian crisis of 1997, Argentina was being referred to as a model state because of its fixed exchange rate regime. However, by 2001, due to several macroeconomic reasons the economy had collapsed. It is now clear that Argentina will reverse at least some of the economic reforms introduced by president Carlos Mennen in the early 1990s to survive the crisis it is currently experiencing. That small and open economies are far more susceptible to large external shocks, such as changes in foreign interest rates, terms of trade, regional contagion effects, etc, is among the many lessons of the Argentine crisis.

Dire Impact of Drought on Saving and Investment

In the current macro-economic scenario, the adverse impact of the drought is likely to be much more severe on saving and investment in the economy than on supplies of commodities.

Macroeconomic Management in the Nineties

This paper discusses India's macroeconomic policies in the 1990s. Section II of the paper provides an overview of macroeconomic performance during the decade. Section III recounts the macro-policy responses to the principal problems and challenges that surfaced as the decade unfolded. Section IV surveys the main institutional reforms carried out in the nineties in the key dimensions of macroeconomic policy - fiscal, monetary and the exchange rate regime. Section V concludes by outlining briefly some of the major ongoing challenges for macroeconomic policy.

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