ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles By Inflation

Persistence and Volatility-weighted Measures of Core Inflation for India

Unlike exclusion-based measures which remove food and fuel entirely from core inflation, the proposed core measures, using alternative weighting schemes, assign higher weight to the more persistent and less volatile groups in both food and non-food components to capture the more durable part of inflation. We show that our constructed indices satisfy the common properties of core inflation as (i) an unbiased estimate, (ii) a smoother and persistent component, and (iii) a good predictor of headline inflation, thus providing an alternative gauge of underlying inflation.

Tackling Food Inflation

Retail inflation, measured by the year-on-year consumer price index, reached 6.83% in August 2023, higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance limit of 6%. This surge was driven by soaring food prices. The government has implemented a series of measures, including an export ban on non-basmati white rice, export ban and stocking limits on wheat, a 20% export duty on parboiled rice, a minimum export price of $1,200 per tonne on basmati rice, etc, to contain food inflation. However, these abrupt and stringent market-depressing measures are impacting farmers’ income adversely. A more rational and dependable trade policy that balances the interests of producers and consumers while containing food inflation is advocated.

Role and Impact of Inflation Targeting Regime on Households’ Inflation Expectation

The inflation targeting regime has almost no impact on households’ inflation expectation formation. The article finds a very high correlation between the three–month ahead households’ IE and current inflation perception. It argues that the IE majorly depends on households’ realisation of current inflation, providing very less space for other factors, like regime shift to IT. It further questions the fundamental need of awareness regarding the IT regime for it to affect the IE formation among households.

Monetary Policy in the Midst of Cost-push Inflation

The Reserve Bank of India adopted inflation-targeting monetary policy based on the New Keynesian 3-equation model. How realistic are the assumptions, and how effective have monetary policy instruments been in controlling the inflation rate? Given India’s structural specificities, what are the implications of cost-push inflation for policy rate and output gap? This paper addresses these questions by identifying alternative theoretical possibilities within a simple 3-equation model and locating the Indian specificity by estimating the Phillips curve and monetary policy rule equation. The analysis points towards the constraints of monetary policy in India due to presence of a flat Phillips curve and indicates the possibility of adverse effect on output gap due to presence of Taylor’s rule.

Monetary Growth, Financial Structure, and Inflation

It is argued that a key question of the operation of monetary policy is its decomposition into a price effect and an output effect. Specifically, the
association between the easing of global monetary and liquidity conditions on the one hand, and the significant spurt in inflation, on the other, in recent
times is probed to conclude that across the world, there seems to be an association. The issues of monetary stability, price stability and financial stability are also intimately interlinked.