ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Indian EconomySubscribe to Indian Economy

COVID-19 Crisis: Understanding the State of Economy during and after the Lockdown

Nothing could have brought the global economy to a grinding halt like the COVID-19 pandemic in recent history. Barring essential goods, the production, sale, and consumption of all goods and services have been affected. This article offers a low-down on the stalled economy, and also makes projections for India’s post-pandemic economy. At the time of writing this article, the Government of India’s Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package was not yet announced.

Understanding the Indian Regulatory State

Regulation in India: Design, Capacity, Performance edited by Devesh Kapur and Madhav Khosla, New Delhi: Hart Publishing, 2019; pp 448, ₹ 602 (paperback).

COVID-19 Lockdown: Protecting the Poor Means Keeping the Indian Economy Afloat

Recognising the strong link between work and poverty, and the crucial role the working poor play in the functioning of the larger economy, it is imperative for the government to roll out adequate measures in order to mitigate the adverse impact of the unprecedented economic inactivity.

India’s Exclusionary Road to Inclusive Development

A historical look at India’s consumer expenditure survey reveals a rather sombre picture of development.

Economic Revival or Dead Cat Bounce?

Although growing at rates that are globally enviable, the Indian economy has been unstable over the last several years. False dawns, shifting time series, and the selective use of data has provided fodder for scoring political brownie points. Citing near-term data, the Economic Survey 2017–18 argues that the Indian economy is on the path of recovery even as it raises some red flags. What does a comprehensive appraisal of the data show? Is this “recovery” sustainable or is this yet another case of a dead cat bounce?

Vulnerability of Emerging Market Economies to Exogenous Shocks

The transmission of global demand, oil supply and monetary policy shocks on the Indian economy are empirically examined using a parsimonious structural vector autoregression model for the period 1996 to 2016. Global demand shocks exert the most dominant effect causing fluctuations in various macroeconomic variables, whereas global monetary policy spillovers play an important role in affecting domestic short-term interest rates and financial asset prices. Global oil supply shocks, given its relative weightage as an intermediate input, have a greater impact on wholesale price index inflation than on consumer price index inflation. Given the rising trade and financial integration of the Indian economy, a quantitative impact analysis of these global shocks assumes importance for macroeconomic and monetary policy frameworks.

Demystifying Delusion and Unveiling the Crypt

The Indian Economy in Transition: Globalization, Capitalism and Development by Anjan Chakraborty, Anup Dhar and Byasdeb Dasgupta; New Delhi: Cambridge University Press, 2016; pp xx + 422, price not indicated.

Sectoral Linkages and Growth Prospects

This paper examines the linkage of growth among the agriculture, industry and services sectors of the economy, using both an input-output (I-O) and a simultaneous equation framework. Despite the substantial increase in the share of the services sector in GDP over the years, the I-O tables suggest that the agricultural sector still plays an important role in determining the overall growth rate of the economy through demand linkages with other sectors of the economy.

Global Slowdown and the Indian Economy

While there may have been some effect of the current global slowdown on economic activity in India, poor performance of agriculture has perhaps been more responsible for the Indian economic slowdown in recent years. Thus domestic factors such as agricultural growth can be neglected only at our own peril. With the information technology industry set to be a major vehicle for productivity growth, India must be prepared to withstand the increased possibility of output volatility through upswings and recessions. And as it increasingly meshes with the globalised trading and financial system, India's own financial system must be strengthened to withstand asset price shocks with policies geared to take quick remedial measures.

A Life in Political Economy

Glimpses of Indian Economic Policy: An Insider’s View by I G Patel; Oxford University Press, New Delhi, 2002; pp 205, Rs 395.

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