ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Continuous Revisions Cast Doubts on GDP Advance Estimates

Two recent press releases by the Central Statistics Office substantially revise the new series of National Accounts Statistics. The new releases are more than just routine updates, and entail methodological changes and incorporate new sources of data, perhaps in response to various critiques. Yet, on comparing the advance estimates released with past such estimates, the CSO's latest growth projections once again turn out to be far too optimistic.

Sectoral Linkages and Growth Prospects

This paper examines the linkage of growth among the agriculture, industry and services sectors of the economy, using both an input-output (I-O) and a simultaneous equation framework. Despite the substantial increase in the share of the services sector in GDP over the years, the I-O tables suggest that the agricultural sector still plays an important role in determining the overall growth rate of the economy through demand linkages with other sectors of the economy.

Growth vs Inflation Control

The reduction in the Bank rate and in the cash reserve ratio effected in the latest credit policy statement may appear small, but what is significant is the signal conveyed to the market that the policy of supporting investment by providing adequate liquidity and a softer interest rate environment will continue.

Liberalisation and Growth of Firms in India

This study analyses the impact of the liberalisation policies on the growth of firms in India. It analyses the inter-firm differences in growth rates over a seven-year period. The basic unit is the firm and the study allows for the entry and exit of firms during the sample period. Further, the authors show that not all firms have benefited from the liberalisation measures. There were gainers and losers. The impact of the determinants on growth has not remained constant over the years but has changed during the process of liberalisation.

Global Business and Political Governance

A brief look at critical turning-points that have marked qualitative transformations in the nexus between the polity and business. What is most noticeable is the pendulum-like movement of the status and influence of business from the periphery to the centre in the power structure. Each swing of the pendulum originates in the dysfunction of whatever organisational thrust happened to be dominant at the beginning of the swing. Surely, the present swing towards global business will generate some countervailing tendencies which will change the momentum of the process, as also its specific nature. In the process the opportunities for expansion available to the developing nations will diminish in one area, and increase perhaps in others.

What Ails Kerala's Economy:A Sectoral Exploration

The `Kerala model' of development has been facing a serious crisis due to low growth, high cost, low productivity, low investment and low employment in the state economy. This paper analyses the performance of major sectors of the state economy, such as agriculture, industry and the financial sector, during the past two decades and brings out the problems they confront. The paper highlights the lack of a development strategy in Kerala for growth and employment generation.

Environmental Compliance versus Growth

Stringent regulations to control pollution due to effluents have not stifled the growth of the palm oil industry in Malaysia; rather, they have complemented the industry's efforts to innovate and remain competitive.

Indian Software Industry Development

Export-led growth has been the mainstay of the spectacular performance of the Indian software industry. However, continued growth at the blistering pace set in the 1990s faces significant challenges in the form of growing scarcity of talent, rising wage costs and emerging competition. Besides, the recent slowdown in the US has lowered growth estimates for the infotech industry. The Indian software industry cannot afford to be complacent if it wants to maintain its position as a premier purveyor of software services. The industry will need to consolidate its strengths and move up the value chain if it is to maintain its head start on the competition. Most importantly, it will have to invest substantially in R and D and create linkages to encourage career prospects for researchers in engineering.

McKinsey's Plan for Russia

Well researched and penetrating though it is, the report on Russia prepared by McKinsey, the renowned consultants, is no more than a wish-list of foreign investors in Russia, actual and potential. Far from unlocking the forces of growth, the report's recommendations would lead to further underdevelopment and the enormous talents of the Russian people would be effectively bottled up for long years.

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