ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles By export

Effect of FDI Inflows on the Export Performance of India

The impact of foreign direct investments on the expansion of export-based foreign trade in emerging economies is explored. Examining data over 20 years, it is observed that FDI has a significant positive influence in promoting foreign trade in India in the long run. There exists no significant relationship between FDI and exports in the short run.

Export Performance of South Asia

South Asia’s trade structure, trade potential, supply capacity, and global market access from 1991 to 2017 are examined through empirical research using trade indexes and gravity econometric estimation. The results broadly reflect a stagnant position of South Asia in the merchandised trade structure. South Asian economies have a comparative advantage in some sectors, which are common for them, and these became their competitive export domain. Depending on their relationship, rivalry may be beneficial. India has the highest export diversification, among other criteria, and must refocus on economic integration. The export potential exists while market access and supply capacity remain intact. As South Asia is a high-consumption economy, domestic issues should be handled tactfully and regional integration must be emphasised.

Export-induced Loss in Employment and Earnings during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented exogenous shock in the world economy unlike the global financial crisis in 2008, which was endogenously determined in the structure of capitalist financial market. Given the fact that Indian export sector significantly contributes to the Indian economy in general and employment in particular, it is worth examining how the Indian gross domestic product and exports changed in comparison with the world GDP and world exports respectively, in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–21 vis-à-vis the GFC in 2008. Which industries are affected the most, in terms of export loss, during this COVID-19 crisis? What have been the consequences of these falling export on employment and earnings in the Indian export sector? This study estimates that in the COVID-19 year 2020–21, Indian exports have fallen by `3.74 lakh crore, with a plausible loss of direct employment by 5.06 lakh and an estimated loss of earnings around `12.4 thousand crore across 85 commodities.

 

The Indian Economy

Deadly and frightening as it appears, it is still too early to estimate the severity of India’s Covid-19 second wave. Unlike the transatlantic countries where it appears to have peaked, India’s second wave is still trending upwards. While the second wave is more devastating, India’s unpreparedness is evident. India needs to recognise that such pandemics will come again. It needs to diversify and secure its supply chains, vaccine output, and upgrade its poor healthcare infrastructure. The Indian economy has been badly hit by the pandemic, with one of the highest output losses amongst major economies. One of the possible reasons for this is the limited fiscal support despite a stringent lockdown, with most of the heavy lifting done through monetary measures. Going forward, its economy needs to overcome several challenges before it can return to its former high growth trajectory.