ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

DroughtSubscribe to Drought

Univariate Forecasting of State-Level Agricultural Production

The drought of 2002 has brought home the critical need for a short-term forecasting model for the agriculture sector at sub-national level, since good and bad agricultural years are not synchronous across states. This paper attempts forecasting through the fitting of univariate ARIMA models to past agricultural outcomes for five states: Punjab, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.

Agriculture, Employment and Social Sector Neglected

The 2003-04 Budget fails to address the major problems of agriculture, employment generation and the social sector.

Dire Impact of Drought on Saving and Investment

In the current macro-economic scenario, the adverse impact of the drought is likely to be much more severe on saving and investment in the economy than on supplies of commodities.

Dams and Development

Dam oustees in Satara district of Maharashtra recently scored a signal victory, when their 'sit-in struggle' resulted in the acceptance of their demands by the state government, including those on water allowance and equitable distribution of water. The agitators in Satara have thus managed to continue their tradition of struggle in the quest for development.

Drought in Karnataka

Karnataka is reeling under its worst drought in 10 years in the wake of the failure of the south-west monsoon. The symptoms were visible two months ago, but the state machinery is only now gearing up to tackle the situation, even as incidents of crop loss, cattle deaths, and mass migration of labour come to the fore. The state has sought financial assistance from the centre, but the question is how efficiently the money is spent and whether it reaches the needy. Ultimately, however, only long-term measures, such as rejuvenating the natural resource base, will help to tackle the scourge of drought.

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