Currency

Can cryptocurrencies emerge as a competition to national currencies?

The impact of demonetisation on the movement of currency in circulation in India over time is examined. Four different models of currency in circulation are used to estimate these models using weekly data from April 1992 to October 2016. An analysis of out-of-sample forecast performance of these models prior to demonetisation reveals that the series could be forecast well before this event. Out-of-sample forecast errors of these models during the post-demonetisation period are, therefore, interpreted as shocks due to demonetisation. As far as weekly growth rates of the series are concerned, we observe no major change in intra-month seasonality in currency in circulation once the shock due to demonetisation mitigated.

Like in the rest of contemporary capitalism, the Indian monetary system is based on state-backed credit money. Yet this hierarchical system of credit/social relations appears to us as a system of fiat money. This fetish of fiat money, analogous to Marx’s commodity fetish, is produced in the operation of credit system. The institutional and political arrangements of the Indian state amplify this inherent fetish. This conjuncture of elements produces a particularly robust fetish of fiat money in India, giving the Indian state more degrees of freedom over money than other states enjoy, a margin that the current government is now exploiting.

In the context of the demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes, the issuance of currency and its different denominations are traced over time, while also tracking key macroeconomic features of India's changing economy over the decades. Further, the possible immediate and longer term economic effects of demonetisation are discussed.