ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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COVID-19 Forecasting and Investigating the Impact of the Lockdown in India

The paper attempts to forecast the growth pattern of the COVID-19 spread in India and examines the impact of the lockdown on its spread and deaths. Comparing different models for short-term forecasts—hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average with errorremodelling using fast Fourier transform—has been found to have better accuracy. It is observed that the data set starting from the first phase of the lockdown generates more accurate estimates. The impact analysis shows a clear trend break on 3 March for confirmed cases and 11 March for the deaths.

The Role of Industrial Policy in Market-friendly Economies

The paper surveys the status of vaccine research and development and its manufacture in India and discusses the fact that the country has used industrial policy instruments rather sparingly in jump-starting R&D and manufacturing of vaccines for COVID-19 vaccines. This is despite India’s acknowledged innovation capability. The paper also contrasts the Indian case with that of the United States case discussed in Part 1 of this two-part paper.

The Role of Industrial Policy in Market-friendly Economies

Given the public good characteristics of new technologies and especially those contributing to improved health, there is a strong case for state support for research and development and indeed for converting those research results to commercialise products and processes. The state support to the market is even more vital in developing vaccines for the COVID-19 pandemic, which has engulfed the whole world and has shattered the economies of countries and lives of ordinary citizens. The paper, in two parts, analyses how the state and the market have responded to the development of vaccines for this pandemic in two countries, India and the United States. India is chosen as it is one of the leading manufacturers of low-cost vaccines, and the US is selected as it is the top country where systematic R&D on vaccines is carried out. In this part, the focus is on the renewed debate on the use of industrial policy and surveys the specific policy instruments used by one of the leading market-friendly economies in the world, namely the US, in successfully developing within a short period of time a number of highly effective vaccines for COVID-19.

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