ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles By COVID-19 pandemic

The 2020 Recession

The global economy experienced one of the worst recessions in 2020, and there is a growing concern that another recession is impending. While it is widely understood that the 2020 recession was caused by a random external shock, this article argues that the recession was due, irrespective of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was structural and endogenous to the system. The underlying weakness of the global economy was built over the years, making it vulnerable to any shock to trigger a downturn. It had also reached the tipping point from the cyclical point of view, with the passing of 11 years since the previous 2007−09 global recession.

Investigating Interstate Variations in the COVID-19 Outcomes in India

The variations in COVID-19 infections and deaths reported in Indian states as of 31 March 2021 have been analysed. While the proportion of people living in densely populated areas, per capita net state domestic product, and proportion of aged people explained the variations in COVID-19 infections, in the case of deaths, an additional contributing factor was identified in per capita public health infrastructure. The curious situation of income increasing COVID-19 transmissions and deaths could probably be explained by the considerable proportion of people in some high-income states living in congested slums under extreme poverty with poor access to basic infrastructure, and the high mobility and exposure of some of these states to domestic and international travel footprint, and large migrant population, all resulting in increased risks.

Impact of Lockdown on Employment and Earnings

The Periodic Labour Force Survey is an important official source of data on the labour force. In this paper, we make use of the data on activity statuses according to the daily, weekly, and the principal usual status approaches and the earnings data from PLFS 2019–20 to study the impact of the lockdown on employment and earnings. 

Export-induced Loss in Employment and Earnings during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented exogenous shock in the world economy unlike the global financial crisis in 2008, which was endogenously determined in the structure of capitalist financial market. Given the fact that Indian export sector significantly contributes to the Indian economy in general and employment in particular, it is worth examining how the Indian gross domestic product and exports changed in comparison with the world GDP and world exports respectively, in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–21 vis-à-vis the GFC in 2008. Which industries are affected the most, in terms of export loss, during this COVID-19 crisis? What have been the consequences of these falling export on employment and earnings in the Indian export sector? This study estimates that in the COVID-19 year 2020–21, Indian exports have fallen by `3.74 lakh crore, with a plausible loss of direct employment by 5.06 lakh and an estimated loss of earnings around `12.4 thousand crore across 85 commodities.

 

India–Gulf Labour Migration in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic-associated developments in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have had direct and adverse impacts on low- and semi-skilled migrant workers, including job loss, wage cuts and earning loss. The crisis has in many ways also exposed fault lines in the existing Indian migration governance system in dealing with the vulnerabilities experienced by such migrants; these gaps are structural in nature and have been prevailing for a long period. The article delineates some of the major policy interventions that merit immediate attention to make the migration policy architecture “migrant-centric,” thereby enhancing the migration and developmental outcomes of future labour outflows.

COVID-19 Context and the Fifteenth Finance Commission

The objective of this paper is to understand the core recommendations of the Fifteenth Finance Commission in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Given the macroeconomic uncertainties and rising fiscal needs, the commission focused on fiscal stability, equity and enhancement of fiscal space through higher borrowing with a fiscal exit plan for both union and states.

 

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Livelihood Loss

Significant variations in the rise in the unemployment rate across regions after the nationwide lockdown was enforced without any discrimination are noted. The reasons for such disparities are explored and migration is noted as an important factor. States with higher rates of migration and urbanisation, greater dependency on casual wage employment and non-agricultural employment witnessed hunger and an adverse impact on livelihood.