ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles By Coronavirus

Economic Impact of the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdown on Indian Farmers

​The impact of the pandemic on the farmers with different farm sizes is analysed. The changes in the income of farmers are highlighted, and the mitigation of the financial downturn by farmers using government cash transfers and sale of assets is explored. The change in the uptake of loans during the pandemic is investigated.

Lockdown and Reopening the Economy

This article explores the spatial dynamics of COVID-19—with nationwide and partial lockdowns’ in its two waves, respectively—in India by employing the location quotient and univariate Moran’s I statistics with various variables representing spatial adjacency, proximity, population, population density, urbanisation, migration, and health infrastructure variables. The results suggest that though geographical proximity to the hotspot states played an important role in triggering the outbreak during both the waves, it could not influence the spatial clustering at the sluggish phase of the pandemic.

 

India’s Withdrawal from RCEP

One major driver behind India’s decision to embrace the “eastern” regional trade agreements during 2010–11 and graduate from the “Look East Policy” (1991) to the “Act East Policy” (2014) has been the urge to integrate the domestic manufacturing sector with “Factory Asia.” The article analyses India’s trade pattern through an endogenous structural break analysis with monthly data for 10 major sectors, involving the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China, Japan, and South Korea separately. The analysis concludes that the recent stream of events in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic offers India an opportunity to consolidate the domestic manufacturing sector.

 

Export-induced Loss in Employment and Earnings during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented exogenous shock in the world economy unlike the global financial crisis in 2008, which was endogenously determined in the structure of capitalist financial market. Given the fact that Indian export sector significantly contributes to the Indian economy in general and employment in particular, it is worth examining how the Indian gross domestic product and exports changed in comparison with the world GDP and world exports respectively, in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–21 vis-à-vis the GFC in 2008. Which industries are affected the most, in terms of export loss, during this COVID-19 crisis? What have been the consequences of these falling export on employment and earnings in the Indian export sector? This study estimates that in the COVID-19 year 2020–21, Indian exports have fallen by `3.74 lakh crore, with a plausible loss of direct employment by 5.06 lakh and an estimated loss of earnings around `12.4 thousand crore across 85 commodities.

 

National Lockdown and COVID-19 Containment in India

What impact the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown has had on the spread of the virus in Class 1 cities of India is discussed using an interrupted time series model. Four variants of the susceptible–infected–recovered models are used to develop a counterfactual, which are compared with actual data. The analysis reveals that the lockdown has reduced the number of COVID-19 cases by 23.65 million–33.77 million and averted approximately 0.001 million–0.010 million deaths. At the regional level, it has prevented a major health crisis as existing intensive care unit and ventilator facilities for critically ill patients would have been inadequate.

 

Using Public Procurement Strategically

The article examines policy decisions and practices in public procurement in India during the pandemic, and finds that bureaucracy could not use public procurement strategically and relied upon archaic and centralised management of procurement to (mis)handle the pandemic. The article also offers some lessons from China’s procurement designs and calls for a major reform in this sector in India.