ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles By Central Bank

Monetary Policy Announcements of the Reserve Bank of India and the Role of Information Shock

Inflation-targeting central banks supplement their monetary policy announcements with communication in the form of speeches and publication of text documents. The markets react to the surprise component of the rate action and the communication by the central bank. Thus, the monetary surprise derived from the reaction of markets, following a policy announcement, is agglutinated with the central bank information. The present paper attempts to identify and examine the efficacy of such an information shock in influencing the inflation expectations of households, interest rate expectations of agents, output and inflation.

Central Bank Profits in National Accounts

For macroeconomics, the government is divided into the central bank and the treasury. Positive profits recorded by the first are cancelled out as a negative item in the second. However, a debate has been generated by the transfer by the Reserve Bank of India of a record surplus to the coffers of the overnment. The issue is examined in a stock-flow-consistent model. A tension is found to reside in the pledging of profits for advances to banks on the one hand, and reducing the government budget deficit on the other. In the case of India, we conclude that central bank profits are intended to substitute for taxation.

What Should be the Criteria for Choosing RBI Governor?

Spending a few years in Washington D C as India’s executive director at the International Monetary Fund or some Ivy League think tank should not be considered as a qualification for the post of Governor of the Reserve Bank of India.  Instead, deputy governors and even those junior to them who have spent the immediate preceding years working in Mumbai, and most of whom do have doctorates the PhDs in relevant sub areas, should have the first lien on the governor’s job.

Estimates of High GDP Growth for 2015-16

In producing the new series, the Central Statistics Office with its rebased National Accounts Statistics has done a studious job of marshalling diverse sources of data and weaving them together into a composite new source. However, the final picture of NAS data would have been more acceptable if better caution was exercised in using new concepts as well as new sources of data, and in weighing the growth results against frequent and extensive revisions. The CSO has failed to refine the growth results juxtaposed against the repetitive and substantial revisions that the data sources have impelled and have completely ignored the analytical construct of gross domestic product at factor cost.