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Decline of the Big Five

Decline of the Big Five ALTHOUGH it is too early to say what their full implications for the future of world politics will be, it is quite clear that the momentous events of 1968 will lead to some structural changes in international society. It was in 1945 that the victorious powers of the Second World War gave to the world a system based on the concept of the predominance of five great powers. It is only in 1968 that events have raised the question of how far this system is based on a realistic assessment of the political, economic and military power of the Big Five. For, whether it was the US experiences in Vietnam or the Soviet suppression of Czechoslovakia, the youth upheaval in Paris or the withering away of the Chinese Cultural Revolution, the monetary crisis in Europe or the domestic turmoil in United States, the reassertion of neo-Stalinist forces in Soviet Union or the British decision to withdraw from East of Suez, the one common lesson that all these events yielded is that the Big Five have lost the moral authority and the sheer physical power needed to guide and lead the rest of the world.

Consensus against IMF Regime

Consensus against IMF Regime Jagdish N Bhagwati THE recent crisis in the international monetary system has led to much speculation among academic economists here [United States] as to the future course of action. The number of economists in this country who have explicitly discussed the advisability of shifting eventually to a system of flexible exchange rates is considerable. Indeed, the only prominent international economist who continues supporting the regime of fixed rates is Charles Kindleberger. Even Paul Samuelson, who clearly cannot be described as a market-dominated economist, was on television on the night before de Gaulle turned around and refused to devalue the franc, and talked rather explicitly about the recent crisis providing the vantage point for the new US administration to begin thinking seriously about moving away from the IMF regime. The crisis has thus seemed to bring economists of totally different political and economic persuasion to converge steadily onto the view that the Bretton Woods system has outlived any utility it might have had in the post- War period.

In Law and By Law

In Law and By Law Ottuketkal THE statement of Morarji Desai on November 20 in the Lok Sabha on the cornering of Indian Iron shares by Ramnath Goenka, newspaper magnate, shows the extent to which he is willing to compromise Government in his bid to woo special interests (for the background see "Moving Spirits", October 26, 1968, p 1643). The avowed purpose of Morarjt's statement was to show that Government had all along been alert to Goenka's doings and that nothing illegal had transpired. There was no connivance of the Reserve Bank, he said, in Goenka's bid to support his purchases with bank credit. Morarji thereby succeeded in establishing in the public mind that Goenka enjoyed his special protection and that the Finance Ministry's your most obedient, etc,

Ayub Regime Challenged from Within

Ayub Regime Challenged from Within Mohammed Ayoob THE past few weeks have been particularly difficult for the Ayub regime in Pakistan. It has had to face a barrage of hostile criticism. Not that the Ayub regime, in spite of its quasi-dictatorial nature, has been completely free of criticism before. What makes the present situation unique is the fact that the criticism has now begun to come even from within the establishment. New techniques have been used in the past few weeks to give vent to the feeling of disenchantment with the Ayub regime in certain quarters.

Moving Spirits

Optober 26, 1968 the industry must be compelled to revise Its pristine ideas about jute purchases. Last year when raw jute was going abegging at Rs 36 a maund, the mills claimed that they did not have enough funds to step up their purchases which would have stabilised the price at a level remunerative to the farmer. Now that the Bengal farmer, as often in the past, has diverted his land to rice, mills have suddenly found it possible to scramble for limited supplies at nearly twice the price they were willing to pay last year. The creation of a buffer stock is ruled out this year but next year there must be a concerted and

Soviet Arms Aid to Pakistan

October 19, 1968 ignores certain basic prerequisites of development The key factor for cumulative development is saving and capital formation. While the rate of fixed domestic capital formation was 19 per cent in 1959, it steadily declined to 14 per cent in 1965. Thereafter it has taken an upward trend, the rate for the past two years being 14.7 and 15,8 per cent. An improvement of this magnitude is hardly a matter for self-congratulation because the current rate is still substantially below the 1959 rate of 19 per cent.

Speakers and the Supreme Court

October 12, 1968 of no particular value. (Imagine the loss of this lucre had the newspaper strike continued!) Hindustan Times and Indian Express published articles on Gandhi by Lord Louis Mountbatten without mentioning prominently that they were not contributed articles, but reprints of an article included in a volume on Gandhi compiled by Radha- krishnan. This misleading of the public is a frequent occurrence in Indian journals, which is rather sad, considering that most of the bigger newspapers, at least, can easily commission top writers for a substantial fee. That they do not do so, but are content to run syndicated columns, is a poor commentary on editorial enterprise.

Decline and Fall of Editors

ventures undertaken during the year. The total project cost of the 56 companies which approached the capital market in 1967-68 amounted to Rs 204 crores which is an increase of 38 per cent over the previous year. Existing companies accounted for a project cost of Rs 172 crores, and new companies of Rs 31 crores. Plant and machinery constituted as much as 65 per cent of the total project cost indicating that most of the projects were in the nature of modernisation and installation of additional balancing equipment.

Arithmetic of HYVP

Ekalavya THE , Planning Commissions "Approach to the Fourth Plan" assumes a 5 per cent per annum growth in agricultural production over the Plan. Since the agricultural growth rate will be the dominant factor determining growth of the economy as a whole, it is understandable that one of the points on which discussion of the 'Approach' document has come to centre is whether the growth rate of 5 per cent per annum far the agricultural sector can be. considered realistic or feasible.

Soviet Arms and Assurances

Soviet Arms and Assurances G S Bhargava HISTORY seems to be repeating itself. In 1954 when the United States started arming Pakistan, there was consternation in India because an arms race with Pakistan was both unwelcome and undesirable, though it did become unavoidable. With the memory of Partition still fresh in people's minds, there was a genuine feeling that the US was helping an enemy.

Why Cut Engineering Admissions

Why Cut Engineering Admissions? V N Kothari THERE is a proposal in official circles to cut admissions to engineering courses in 1968 by 30 per cent. This cut, it is said, would help case the increasing unemployment among engineers. This caim has no justification.

A Non-Policy on Non-Proliferation

all. Expenditure on it has been Rs 1.81 crores against the provision of Rs 2.87 crores and against the target of 4,73 lakh acres only 2.24 lakh acres have been covered.


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