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Who Won in West Bengal

Who Won in West Bengal? Ashok Rudra EVEN the most optimistic political forecaster could not have forecast, and none did forecast, the surrealistic electoral victory of Indira's Congress in West Bengal. Even the most confirmed CPM hater can hardly explain to himself how it has been possible for the giant party to be defeated so abjectly. And, of course, nobody is in a position to say how much of a loss of mass support for the CPM this defeat in elections indicates.

Modern Indian Historiography-Urgency and Risk of Micro Studies

 In its loan operations, the company could adopt the general principles of farm finance enunciated in the Crop Loan Manual Of the Reserve Bank of India, The crop loan system envisages the provision of credit on the basis of a rational assessment of the need of the agriculturist in relation to his agricultural activity, subject to his repaying capacity and with a view to minimising the possibility of the loan's misuse. It provides for the issue of a minimum amount of loan in cash, with the major requirements of the agriculturist being met in kind. The cash part of the loan is intended to meet the wage-bills and consumption requirements of the period during which the crop is still in the field. It may also include expenses incurred for inputs such as for additional weeding, additional watering, etc. The components of the loan would depend on the willingness of the farmers to take up farm practices recommended by the agricultural extension service. The capacity, of the agriculturist to repay his short-term loans and the annual instalments of his term-loans is roughly estimated to be 50 per cent of the total yield. The timings of the disbursements and the recoveries should be adjusted to the agricultural season. The advances should be synchronised with the various stages of cultivation, and the repayment schedules should be arranged such that they synchronise with the harvest after allowing some time for the agriculturist to market his produce.

Taming the Army in Pakistan

Taming the Army in Pakistan Dhananjoy AS expected, Pakistan is going through a phase of crises and convulsions. And there is no light yet at the end of the tunnel which Bhutto has entered. What precisely the latest changes in the Pakistani armed forces mean is anybody's guess and many of the theories propounded in the Indian Press may be more in the nature of expression of the instinctive distrust and suspicion of anything that takes place across the borders. All that one can say with any degree of certainty is that the political instability in Pakistan continues and that many more dramatic developments could take place before the new Pakistan finds its feet as a state.

The Small Car A Waste of Resources

wiping off the accumulated loss last year, is now paying a maiden equity dividend of eight per cent for the year to August 1971. Looking to the fourfold cover for the distribution and the fact that shareholders had to wait for 9 years to get a return on their investment, the payment looks modest. But the Board's decision has been influenced by a number of factors. So far, the company has not had to pay income-tax. With the set-off of development rebate and relief under Section 80 J of the Income-tax Act now almost fully recouped, future profits would be liable to taxation. Secondly, the company has been operating consistently at more than rated capacity. Production and sales increased by 14 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively, over the previous year on top of increases of 20.5 per cent and 46.2 per cent, respectively, recorded in the preceding year. The improvment in production techniques alone is not likely to bring about any sizeable increases in output and sales. At the same time, costs are on the rise and the bearing industry is becoming competitive. The situation will materially improve only when the proposed expansion to manufacture 29 lakh bearings per annum on a two-shift basis is implemented. Owing to stringency of foreign exchange, the company has been asked to ascertain whether the imported machinery required for expansion could be obtained from rupee currency areas. This would cause some delay in implementing the expansion which is estimated to take about two years of the receipt of industrial and import licences. The expansion would involve a capital outlay of Rs 1.5 crores, and the management's intention is to employ the company's internal resources to the maximum possible extent, since the financial institutions now insist that they be given an option to convert part of their loans into equity shares. It is also not likely that the company would get permission to issue 'rights' shares at par, since the market price of the share is high. The new chairman, James S Raj, has assured shareholders that barring unforeseen circumstances the generation of funds is expected to he sufficient to provide for adequate return on investment, repayment of loans, and funds needed for growth. His assessment of the immediate future is based on the satisfactory raw-material supply and the healthy order-book. The ball bearing industry is now attaining self- sufficiency in the raw materials field; excepting tubes, all other raw materials are manufactured in the country. Dependence on tubes also will, to an extent, be reduced since TISCO has com menced production of Forged rings. PBI obtained a licence for the import of balancing plant and has installed bulk of the machines. This should also help raise output to some extent.

Notes towards a China Policy

how have a friendly Bangla Desh and in the West a weak Pakistan, the strength of the Indian Army is unlikely to he reduced. As already Indicated, a weak Pakistan, because of its internal instability, is likely to be seen as a continuing threat to India. Any attempt by Pakistan to get aligned with Iran and Afghanistan on the basis of Islam will also create disquiet in India. Moreover, suspicion of China has been aroused again in India. Under these circumstances no political leadership will risk a reduction in troop strengths.

Towards a New Equilibrium in Asia

change by mouthing the relevant slogans and winning a massive mandate on the basis of a radical programme. Whether it is able to fulfil all its promises or not, it has certainly changed the political culture of Pakistan to an appreciable degree. Pakistani society can never be the same again, The PPPs major drawback is that while it represents Punjab and Sind, it had not been able to do well in the elections in the NWFP and Baluchistan. But the forces of change in these two provinces are working through the National Awami Party (NAP) which has a longer history of relevant radicalism than even the PPP. If an understanding can be arrived at between the PPP and NAP and the two smaller provinces can be accommodated in Pakistan's new power structure, Pakistan's problems of national integration as well as social change may become much easier than they seem to be on the surface.

Indian Security after Bangla Desh

important than economic assistance, which India can offer only in limited quantities, is the political support we can provide to strengthen the concept of freedom and independence in this area. One thing is certain, if South- East Asia is swallowed up by any one of the big Asian powers or divided between any two of them in the way of spheres of influence, there will be no equilibrium in Asia but only overlord- ship and consequent conflicts.

A Time for Humility

A Time for Humility Contributed THE avid dissectors of the class character of a nation may disagree, but, for the people of Bangla Desh, liberation from Pakistani colonial subjugation is a great qualitative step forward even if one were to consider the matter in terms of broad historical sweeps. The emotions which an expatriate from that land experiences at this juncture are peculiarly mixed. Joy wells up, joy at the magnificence of the grit demonstrated by practically the entire Bengali populace. But there is also a feeling of guilt and shame. What share can an expatriate protend to have of this glory, what right does he have to lay claim or. a portion of the pride which, from now on, will be the heritage of every citizen of Bangla Desh?

The Impact of Bangla Desh

The Impact of Bangla Desh Sisir Gupta THE two international aspects of the impact of the emergence of Bangla Desh on which it may be worthwhile to speculate are: (a) the possible effects of the restructuring of the subcontinent on intra-regional relations in South Asia and (b) the likely changes in great power attitudes and policies towards this region. Obviously, the effects of the structural changes in the subcontinent will be of utmost significance for the pattern of inter-state relations in South Asia. Even the worst pessimists will assume that India's relations with Bangla Desh will be much friendlier than what obtained between India and Pakistan. Even if the two countries decide to ignore the dictates of geography and of their economic needs and to refrain from having a special relationship with each other, Bangla Desh cannot possibly ever develop the kind of obsession with India that Pakistan had displayed in the past. Its nationalism is bound to be modern and self-contained; unlike Pakistan it will not base its claim to nationhood on the fantasy of In do-Islamic identity nor will it have to refer to India in negative terms every time that it wants to establish a rationale for its separate existence. Therefore, the worst that could happen between India and Bangla Desh is that each would have, in relation to the other, the normal problems of conducting relations with a noigh- MUTUAL GOODWILL But there are many reasons why one could legitimately hope that India and Bangla Desh will achieve a high level of co-operation and friendliness in their relations. In the first place the history of the freedom struggle of the people of Bangla Desh will be the most dominant feature of the frame of reference of the foreign policy makers in Dacca. So great has been the Indian contribution to the achievement of their freedom that the people of Bangla Desh are likely to view this country and its leadership as their genuine friends. This immense fund of goodwill for India cannot be easily exhausted and New Delhi will have to show a very high capacity to mishandle this relationship to be hated in Dacca.

Problem of Refugees from East Bengal

Problem of Refugees from East Bengal P N Luthra MIGRATIONS of uprooted humanity have taken place in very early times in the history of man. Records show that the Roman Empire received many waves of refugees from North and East. Amongst the countless refugee tragedies, there were the Jews of the Dispersion, the? Armenian refugees from the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Whites who migrated after the 1917 Revolution. More latterly, we have the case of Spanish Republicans who fled to France in 1939 and the Germans and Austrians

China, India and Japan

China, India and Japan Dhananjoy THE voting on the restoration of China's legitimate rights in the United Nations hides a few realities regarding the attitudes of member States towards Peking. Nut all among those who voted for the Albanian resolution are friends of China and some among those who voted against it are not as hostile to Peking as appears on the surface. The Chinese Foreign Office may, therefore, not regard the list of those who voted for and against (and those who abstained) as the basis on which it will evolve relationships in the United Nations. For example, Israel voted with the Arabs for Peking but it would be difficult for Tel Aviv to expect any benefit in terms of Chinese attitudes to the Arab-Israeli question. Similarly, Thailand's abstention and Malaysia's support may mean very little of diffe- renee for Chinese purposes.

Towards a Tripolar Game

Towards a Tripolar Game Dhananjoy THE announcement that a Soviet- American Summit will take place in May will cause little surprise in the world. Both the Super Powers had been maintaining mutual contacts at various levels for over a decade and meetings at the highest level have also taken place in the past. Nixon himself will be no stranger in Moscow though he may not conduct a kitchen debate this time. There is more important business to be negotiated: it will be appropriate for a Soviet-American summit to announce some progress in the Salt Talks just as it might declare the intention of both Governments to seriously consider schemes of balanced troops reduction in Europe. The number of agreements that have already been negotiated between the United States and the Soviet Union is by no means insignificant. Ever since the non-proliferation treaty, the two Powers have found it possible to agree on a number of subjects like prohibition of biological warfare, non- use of sea-beds for military purposes and providing safeguards against accidental nuclear war. Of still greater significance is the recent agreement on Berlin which clears the way for a new approach to European security.


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