ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Time-varying Nature of Stock Market Interdependence

In the literature on global market integration, the strength of interdependence has been measured in different ways. However, only an accurate measure of strength of interdependence helps in understanding the nature of integration among markets. This article, by employing novel time-frequency based wavelet techniques, analyses the interdependence of global equity markets from a heterogeneous investor perspective, with a special focus on the Indian stock market. With the wavelet framework effectively capturing the heterogeneity of market participants’ space of operation, an analysis grounded in this framework allows one to capture information from a different dimension than the traditional time domain analyses, where the multiscale structures of financial markets are clearly extracted.

Financial Misconduct, Fear of Prosecution and Bank Lending

The issue and relevance of financial misconduct and fear of prosecution on the lending behaviour of Indian banks is investigated by combining bank-level financial and prudential variables during 2008–18 with a unique hand-collected data set on financial misconduct and fear of prosecution. The findings indicate that, in the presence of financial misconduct, state-owned banks typically cut back on credit creation and instead increase their quantum of risk-free investment. In terms of magnitude, a 10% increase in financial misconduct lowers lending by 0.2% along with a roughly commensurate increase in investment. In terms of the channels, it is found that private banks increase provisioning to maintain their credit growth, although the evidence for state-owned banks is less persuasive.

Economic Slowdown and Financial Fragility

The Indian economy is presently gripped by the dual phenomenon of an unprecedented slowdown as well as financial fragility. What has triggered this? Is this simply a random exogenous shock to an otherwise well-functioning economy? Or, is there anything structural about the present slowdown? What are the binding constraints for recovery? These questions are addressed in the context of India’s overall growth trajectory and policy regime in the last two decades.

Regime shifts in Indian Monetary Policy and Tenures of RBI Governors

The regime shifts in Indian monetary policy during the period 1998–2017 are estimated by applying a multivariate Markov-switching Vector Autoregression (MS-VAR) model. It is found that, in general, Indian monetary policy during this period could be roughly divided into two main phases—one that prevailed from 1998 to 2011 and the other from 2011 to 2016. The tenure of governor Jalan closely corresponds to one regime which also sporadically appears during governor Reddy’s time. The other regime overlaps with the tenure of governor Rajan. In contrast, governor Subbarao’s tenure does not correspond to any specific regime.

Finance and Monetary Policy beyond Neo-liberalism

Against the backdrop of the North Atlantic financial crisis that erupted in 2007–08, this article looks into the changing role of central banks and the monetary and financial sector policies and the challenges of managing the tensions of this impossible trinity, especially from the standpoint of the emerging market economies. Lessons derived from the crises observed in the past three to four decades, whether in the emerging markets or the advanced economies, suggest that financial markets are inherently unstable. Hence, the article concludes that the emerging economies need to practice enhanced and active surveillance of their financial sector in their quest for maintaining of high growth along with financial stability.

Questioning the Orthodoxies

Statements like “money, finance and banking are at the crossroads at this juncture” have become a much-used cliché, but tend to be true for most of the recent past. This year, too, is no exception. At home we have seen that credit growth both from banks and non-banks continue to suffer...

Financial Literacy and Financial Inclusion

Using district-level data, the effect of financial literacy centres on financial inclusion in India is investigated. There is evidence of an improvement in the use of bank accounts over time. Robustness tests suggest that banks with a strong capital position and asset quality are more inclusive through their financial literacy centres, and the traditional bank agents continue playing an important role in this process despite non-traditional channels like mobile telephony. Yet, the findings show that the overall impact of financial literacy on bank account ownership is still limited. The analysis raises useful policy pointers to address those impediments that plague the process.

Monetary Policy Transmission in Financial Markets

In the Indian context, a key question is addressed: What has been the influence of monetary policy on different segments of the financial markets? Constructing a structural vector autoregressive model with the monetary policy rate, the pattern of monetary transmission to financial markets is examined over three distinct periods of regime changes in the Indian monetary policy and liquidity management framework. The empirical evidence indicates that there is sufficient period-specific transmission of monetary policy across the different segments of the financial markets. While the transmission of monetary policy to the money and bond markets is found to be fast and efficient, the impact of the policy rates on the forex and stock markets is limited.

Understanding Systemic Symptoms of Non-banking Financial Companies

The riskiness of banks (public and private) and non-banking financial companies listed on the stock exchange is examined by measuring their extent of interconnectedness at the lowest tail (1%) quantile. Using the macro risk and balance sheet variables under the directional connectedness framework, this study finds the underperforming periods of Indian banks and NBFCs. The findings are consistent with the systemic risk rankings of the Reserve Bank of India for the domestic banks and systemically important NBFCs.

Government Securities Market

Over 2017–18, there was a sharp rise in Indian government securities interest rates unrelated to fundamentals. Examining each of the standard explanatory variables shows them to be inadequate to account for the rise in bond yields in this period. Turning to aspects of Indian structure, the reason is found to be the narrow focus of monetary operating procedures, with excessive reliance on making up liquidity shortfalls with short-term liquidity, which was inadequate given large exogenous durable liquidity shocks, including foreign inflows. The composition of liquidity, share of reserve money and its sources all matter. Open market operations have a significant impact on yields. Large foreign debt inflows induce open market operations sales as G-Secs are swapped for foreign securities to sterilise the effect of inflows on the money supply. G-Secs yields are then found to rise.

Central Banking in India

The flow of events and ideas behind central banking in India, in four distinct phases since independence—1950–70, 1970–90, 1990–2010, and post 2010—is narrated. The 1950–70 period is characterised as one of planned fiscal dominance, while the 1970–90 period has seen the dominance of the fiscal and financial sector with an inward-looking bias. Although there was partnership in crisis management and reform between the Reserve Bank of India and the government during 1990–2010, the period witnessed some differences between the government and the RBI in the areas of monetary management and external sector. The period since 2010 is broadly categorised by the rebalancing and adoption of a new framework, like inflation targeting.

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