The Gujarat Template

Long after political analysts have stopped dissecting the recently concluded elections to the Gujarat assembly, its after-effects will continue to play out. Not because it was an unexpected result. In fact it was not. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had to win. And it did. But it did not win decisively; it defeated the Congress, but did not decimate it; and it has been dented, but not halted.

By securing a majority in the Gujarat elections, the BJP now controls 19 of the 29 states in India, apart from its majority in Parliament. More than two decades ago, the Congress party had governments in 16 out of 26 states. So is the BJP’s dream of a “Congress-mukt India,” a country without the principal opposition party, forging ahead as planned? The Gujarat results appear to be an unexpected wrinkle, one that is not impossible for the BJP to smooth out given its well-oiled election machine. For even though the BJP’s boast of winning two-thirds majority in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, a state it has ruled continuously for two decades, fell well short at 99, just seven seats more than a simple majority and less than the number it had in the outgoing assembly, it has slightly increased its vote share. Its support base in the state remains solid, and neither anti-incumbency, nor a rejuvenated Congress party has been able to effectively erode that.