Table 4A: Level of Satisfaction with the Incumbent Government (2007 and 2012)

Satisfaction with Incumbent SP Govt BSP Govt N in Government 2007 2012 2012

Satisfied with performance 49 49 3,576 Dissatisfied with performance 35 39 2,860 No opinion 16 12 855

core supporters. Among brahmins for instance the SP secured 19% of the votes, up 9 percentage points since 2007. Among Rajputs its vote share went up by 6% and among Kurmi and Koeris its votes more than doubled. Not just that, SP gained across categories of age, education, gender, class and locality. Among men, women, poor, rich, rural and u rban voters, SP’s gains were in the range of 3 to 5 percentage points since 2007. While the BSP lost a significant chunk of its core, it seems to have held on to some of its gains among upper castes and Muslims in 2007. However among lower OBCs who had also given BSP an advantage in 2007,

the party lost 11% votes. It’s not just the BSP, but the BJP too which lost its grip over its traditional voters, namely, the brahmins, Rajputs and other upper castes. While the party came down 6 percentage points among brahmins, the losses among Rajputs and other upper castes were much bigger at 17 and 24 percentage points, respectively. Economically well off voters and college educated voters, core supporters of the BJP for a long time, also seem to have moved away from the party. In urban areas however, where the BJP has done well in the past, the party suffered only marginal losses. As for the Congress, while its performance was way below expectation, it did improve its performance among some

Table 4G: Most Important Election Issue

Law and order

Mayawati 19 23 30 26 24

Yes 37 27 1,968

Can’t say/No opinion 17 25 1,808

Table 4D: Comparison of BSP Government (2007-12) and SP Government (2003-07)

Akhilesh Yadav NA 0 1 1 2

Table 4F: Citizens’ Choice for Chief Minister if Samajwadi Party Wins

put before him/her, a follow up question was asked to the respondent where only those answer categories where the respondent had said “very much” in the first question were read out again, and the respondent was asked to choose from among them the single most important election issue. The follow up question was not applicable to those who did not say “very much” for any of the issues that we put before him/her. Source: Figures are based on a post-poll survey carried out by CSDS; Data set weighted by actual vote share of major parties/alliances.

Table 4H: Citizens’ Opinion on Division of Uttar Pradesh

vol xlviI no 14

respondents were specifically asked to

compare the two governments in the

Agree Disagee Agree Disagee

parties/alliances.

sections. The party made gains among dalits, Kurmis and Koeris, Muslims, Poor, Young (18-25 years) and the college educated compared to 2007. That said, it had done much better among these sections in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and was s imply unable to retain that same level of support. While age was not much of a factor this time, Gender certainly was with the BSP losing the edge it had among women in 2007. While 32% of the women had voted for BSP in 2007, this time only 25% voted for the party. In terms of locality, most of BSP’s losses came among rural voters. The SP, on the other hand, gained among both rural and urban voters in equal measure. In terms of class, the BSP improved in the upper and middle sections but lost substantially among the lower sections and the poor. The SP gained across classes, whereas the BJP saw its support drop among the

Table 4J: Citizens’ Awareness and Support for 4.5% Quota for Minorities within OBC Quota

Table 4K: Party of Second Preference

Party of Second Preference %

Congress 18

upper and middle classes. The Congress which did well mostly among the upper class in 2007, made some gains among the lower economic sections this time (Table 3, p 83).

The CSDS post poll survey fi ndings show that the satisfaction of people with the BSP government was exactly the same as the satisfaction expressed by voters with the SP government in 2007 when a similar survey was conducted (Table 4A, p 84). Even on issues of governance, there was very little difference on how people assessed the performance of the BSP government and the SP government in 2007. While on the issue of controlling corruption and maintaining peace and security, the BSP government was rated better than what the SP government had been rated in 2007, but it was seen to have performed much worse as far as the condition of roads was concerned (Table 4B, p 84).

The Mayawati-led BSP government it seems was also as unpopular as the previous SP government led by Mulayam Singh Yadav. When voters were asked whether the government should get another chance to rule, nearly half of them (48%) said no and only 27% were willing to give it another chance. When the same question was asked during a similar survey in 2007, 47% had wanted the then Mulayam Singh government to go and 37% had said it should get another chance (Table 4C, p 84). However when post-poll survey this time, nearly half of them (46%) said that the previous SP government had been better and only 25% said the BSP government was better (Table 4D, p 84).

The survey reveals that the most popular leader in Uttar Pradesh at present is Mulayam Singh Yadav and by a wide margin. While 33% wanted him to be the next chief minister of the state, 24% wanted Mayawati to continue as chief minister. Rajnath Singh and Rahul Gandhi were the choice of 8% and 7% voters respectively. Akhilesh Yadav was the choice of 2% of the respondents (Table 4E, p 84). When respondents were asked who they would prefer as chief minister if the SP came to power, Mulayam Singh or his son Akhilesh, nearly half of them opted for father. Among SP voters, two-thirds preferred Mulayam Singh (Table 4F, p 84).

The survey revealed that price rise was the most important issue for voters (36%) during the election. Condition of roads emerged as the second most important issue (26%), followed by farmers’ problems (14%). Corruption was an issue for 7% of the voters (Table 4G, p 84).

On the issue of dividing Uttar Pradesh into smaller states, there is greater support for division today than it was seven months ago. While 37% of the respondents agreed with the statement that “ Uttar Pradesh should be divided into smaller states”, a slightly lesser proportion 35% disagreed. When the same question was asked during a survey conducted by CSDS in July 2011 (before the proposal by the Mayawati government to divide Uttar Pradesh into four smaller states), those in favour of dividing UP were marginally lesser than those against it, across regions. The 2012 post-poll

SP 13

Voters Voters Voters of Other Parties

BJP 9

BSP 5

able to vote for your favourite party/party of first choice because of a bad/unsuitable candidate fielded by it, then in

such a situation which other party would you vote for?

Economic & Political Weekly

survey reveals that while most people in Poorvanchal and Awadh oppose the idea of division, in Bundelkhand and Paschim there are more people who are in support of the idea than those who are against it (Table 4H, p 84).

Nearly half the respondents were of the view that the Election Commission did the right thing by ordering the covering of the statues of Mayawati and the Elephant during the elections. Only 16% said it was a wrong decision. Even among dalits most felt the EC did no wrong. Majority of the respondents (51%) were also of the view that the BSP government had wasted money on building statues and parks (Table 4I, p 85).

Less than half the respondents had heard of the recent announcement by the central government of giving reservation to minorities within the OBC quota. However many of those who had heard about the move supported it (48%) (Table 4J, p 85).

The Congress Party may have performed below expectations but appears to have created some potential for itself for the future by emerging as the second preference party among voters. When people were asked which party would they vote for if the party of their fi rst choice put up a bad candidate, most (18%) said Congress (Table 4K, p 85).

Another reason for hope for the Congress is that more people have faith in R ahul Gandhi as a future leader compared to Akhilesh Yadav, Jayant Chaudhury and Varun Gandhi. When asked who among the four would make the best leader in the future, 38% said Rahul Gandhi and 20% opted for Akhilesh Yadav. Even among SP voters, Rahul Gandhi did rather well on this question (Table 4L, p 85).

Survey Methodology

The findings presented here are based on a postpoll survey conducted by the CSDS, Delhi, in Uttar Pradesh. A total of 7,291 persons randomly selected from the latest electoral rolls were interviewed, from the second week of February 2012 till the first week of March (after polling but before counting of votes) in 399 locations in 101 constituencies spread across the state. The assembly constituencies and four polling booths within each sampled constituency were selected using the systematic random sampling technique. The respondents were sampled randomly (oversampling to allow for non-completion) from the updated electoral rolls of the selected polling booths. Of the 12,768 sampled respondents, 7,291 could be interviewed within the stipulated time.

The social profile of the respondents interviewed largely matched the demographic profile of the state, except for women (Table 5). The interviews were conducted by specially trained field investigators. The respondents were interviewed in the face-to-face interview situation using a structured interview schedule in Hindi. Respondents were mostly interviewed at their home, preferably alone. The voting question was asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box.

Table 5: Sample Profile

All figures are in %.

The fieldwork of the survey in Uttar Pradesh was coordinated by A K Verma (Christ Church College, Kanpur), Mirza Asmer Beig (Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh) and Sudhir Khare (DAV Postgraduate College, Azamgarh). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi which included Banasmita Bora, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, K A Q A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Kinjal Sampat, Rupali Warke, Shreyas Sardesai, Sohini Mookherjee, Vibha Attri, and Yogendra Yadav. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey.

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April 7, 2012 vol xlviI no 14