(1) All figures are in % and rounded off.

(2) Question asked in the survey – What is your assessment

are satisfied or dissatisfied with it? (Probe further whether “fully” or “somewhat” satisfied or dissatisfied). Categories of “Fully satisfied” and “Somewhat satisfied” have been merged together as “Satisfied”; categories of “Fully dissatisfied” and “Somewhat dissatisfied” have been merged together as “Dissatisfied”. Source: Figures are based on a post-poll survey carried out by CSDS. Data set weighted by actual vote share of major parties/alliances. Total sample size: 3.250.

constituencies winning 42 of 66 such seats. It was in the urban and semi

SAD+ and the Congress was much tighter both in terms of seats and vote share (Table 2C, p 72).

SAD+ not only performed better than the Congress in seats where Sikhs constitute more than 60% of the popula

* need to be read with caution.

Economic & Political Weekly

of Hindu population, winning 13 of the 19 such seats. In seats where no single community dominated (Sikh or Hindu), the Congress performed slightly better, but even here it trailed the SAD-BJP combine (Table 2D, p 72).

Women voters also seem to have favoured the SAD-BJP combine this election, a point corroborated by survey evidence. Out of the 58 constituencies where the turnout of women voters had been higher than that of men voters, SAD-BJP won 37, while the Congress managed to win 19 such seats (Table 2E, p 72).

Taking this further, if we analyse in terms of how men and women voted based on the CSDS post-poll survey data, then we find that while SAD+ lost votes among both men and women compared to 2007, it still maintained a comfortable and significant lead of 4 percentage points over Congress among the women. In other words it is not men but women who seem to have played a major role in the SAD+ victory this time. Among men voters the contest was much tighter with the Congress having a 1 percentage point edge. The biggest losses for the SAD-BJP alliance were in the urban areas and among upper caste Hindus, both of

which are considered to be BJP’s core voters and had voted for the BJP in large numbers five years ago. While among urban voters, SAD-BJP lost up to 10% votes since last time, among upper caste Hindus the losses were up to 9%. However what is interesting is that these losses did not result in any signifi cant gains for the Congress among these two sections. SAD+ also dropped nearly 8% votes among Jat Sikhs, and all of it seems to have gone to the PPP and not the Congress. The losses suffered by SAD+ among Jat Sikhs, upper caste Hindus and urban voters, were offset by gains among other communities, namely, the Hindu Other Backward Classes (OBCs) (up by 4 percentage points since 2007), OBC Sikhs (up 4 percentage points), dalit Sikhs (up 4 percentage points) and Hindu dalits (up 4 percentage points). The Congress, on the other hand, lost votes among most of these sections compared to 2007, the highest losses being among Hindu dalits at 16 percentage points and Hindu OBCs at 14 percentage points. In fact, the lead of the Congress over SAD+ among Hindu dalits came down from 24 percentage points last time to just 4 percentage points this time (Table 3A, p 73).

The CSDS post-poll survey found strong evidence of positive rating for the work done by the incumbent SAD-BJP government and Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal. A total of 55% of the respondents were satisfied with the Badal government’s performance (Table 4A, p 73). On key areas of governance, such as, condition of farmers, supply of electricity, the SAD-BJP government was rated higher and more positively than the Congress government was in 2007. Only on the issue of controlling corruption was it rated much worse (Table 4B).

Parkash Singh Badal’s personal popularity has remained as high as it was fi ve years ago and he was yet again the most preferred choice for chief minister (38%) among respondents, particularly women and farmers (Tables 4C and 4D). Amarinder Singh of the Congress was a close second at 33%. However compared to 2007, his popularity is down by 5%,

Badal a clearer lead over him this time.

more positively by the voters on govern

opted for the 84-year-old Badal when

Women and Farmers (2012)

All figures are in % and rounded off. Source: Figures are based on a post-poll survey carried out by CSDS; data set weighted by actual vote share of major parties/alliances.

Table 4H: Awareness and Reach of SAD-BJP Government’s Populist Schemes

Scheme Heard Benefited (from among Those Who Had Heard)

Atta-dal scheme (responses of poor only) 80 70

Free power to tube wells for

farmers (responses of

farmers only) 85 68

Free power to dalit families (responses of dalits only) 78 55

Table 4I: Most Important Election Issue in Punjab

it came to running the government and Punjab’s development, 32% chose Amarinder Singh. The latter was also seen as more corrupt (20%). However on the question of who among them was more nepotistic, most respondents (23%) said Badal (Tables 4E and 4F, p 74).

Parkash Singh Badal may be the most popular and best rated leader, his son and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal does not enjoy similar goodwill. While 24% of the respondents said that Sukhbir is not ready to become chief minister and should wait, an ever higher 32% said he is not suitable for the post at all. Even among traditional SAD and BJP supporters, most were of the view that he should wait (Table 4G, p 74).

Most people seem to have heard of the populist schemes launched by the SAD-BJP government during the last five years and among those who have heard of them, majority seems to have bene fited. For instance 80% of the poor have heard of the Atta-Dal scheme meant for poor families and among them 70% have benefited. Similarly, 85% of farmers have heard of the policy that gives free power for tube wells and 68% of them said that they had benefi ted (Table 4H).

The post-poll survey confirms the widespread belief among political observers that after a long time an election in Punjab had gone beyond the old Panthic agenda of political parties. When asked which was the most important election issue for them, 41% of the respondents said price rise and 22% said unemployment. Panth was an issue for only 2% of the voters (Table 4I).

Survey Methodology

The findings presented here are based on a post-poll survey conducted by the CSDS, Delhi, in Punjab. A total of 3,250 persons, randomly selected from the latest electoral rolls, were interviewed in the first week of February 2012 (after polling but before counting of votes) in 178 locations in 45 constituencies spread across the state. The assembly constituencies and four polling booths within each sampled constituency were selected using the systematic random sampling technique. The respondents were sampled randomly (oversampling to allow for non-completion) from the updated electoral rolls of the selected polling booths. Of the 5,760 sampled respondents, 3,250 could be interviewed within the stipulated time.

The social profile of the respondents interviewed largely matched the demographic profile of the state (Table 5). The interviews were conducted by specially trained fi eld investigators. The respondents were interviewed in the face-to-face interview situation using a structured interview schedule in Punjabi and Hindi. Respondents were mostly interviewed at their home, preferably alone. The voting question was asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box.

Table 5: Sample Profile

All figures are in %.

The fieldwork of the survey in Punjab was coordinated by Ashutosh Kumar (Punjab University, Chandigarh) and Jagroop Singh Shekhon (Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at the CSDS, Delhi which included Banasmita Bora, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, K A Q A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Kinjal Sampat, Rupali Warke, Shreyas Sardesai, Sohini Mookherjee, Vibha Attri, and Yogendra Yadav. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey.

Economic & Political Weekly