The Kyoto Protocol, with its crucial distinction between developed and developing countries, was critically wounded in Copenhagen and has virtually been buried at Cancun. It may be predicted with some confidence that the Kyoto Protocol will be replaced at the next climate change conference in Durban by a single framework for all categories of nations. Binding and stiff emission reduction targets for developed countries, decided on the basis of the science and the sustainable upper limit for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, now appear set to be replaced by a bottom-up pledge-and-review process with potentially dangerous outcomes for global climate.