ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846
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Global Downturn and Cross-Border Trade: Some Theoretical and Policy Perspectives

The theme of this paper is the behaviour of global trade and gdp during the most intense phase of the world financial crisis, lasting from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. It examines two features of the downturn: one, the much sharper fall in the volume of trade than that in income, and, two, the much higher gdp-buoyancy of trade during the crisis than before.The paper first examines how far trade buoyancy and its asymmetric behaviour can be explained in terms of a conventional, open-economy macro model and analyses the implications of intra-industry trade in this context. It then focuses on the significance of the financial shock for the two phenomena under investigation. This is followed by a discussion of the impact of large-scale expansionary measures undertaken by governments of both the advanced and emerging market economies, and an evaluation of the efficacy and optimality of these measures from the national and global perspectives.

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