ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846
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Industrial Growth in China and India

Using independent estimates of China's industrial output, this paper compares the performance of the manufacturing sectors in China and India over the past half century at a disaggregated level. It finds that China's industrial growth rate is close to one and half times that of India's over the entire period, with the gap widening gradually. But Indian growth has been more stable. China's superior performance seems understandable in terms of its faster agricultural and exports growth. Does it mean there is little prospect of India catching up with China in the foreseeable future? China seems to suffer from huge excess capacity, misallocation of resources and a gross wastage of capital - as evident from the persistently high capital-output ratio. China's impressive industrial edifice seems to be built on somewhat shaky microeconomic and institutional foundations. In comparison, India's relatively strong foundations and domestic entrepreneurial capital seem to have the potential to improve performance, with a sounder macroeconomic environment: a step up in fixed investment to augment infrastructure supply and agricultural productivity, revival of long-term finance to boost industrialisation, and easier credit delivery to small and medium enterprises.

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