ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Univariate Forecasting of State-Level Agricultural Production

The drought of 2002 has brought home the critical need for a short-term forecasting model for the agriculture sector at sub-national level, since good and bad agricultural years are not synchronous across states. This paper attempts forecasting through the fitting of univariate ARIMA models to past agricultural outcomes for five states: Punjab, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.

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