How Real Is the Secular Decline in Rural Poverty?

There is a consensus that poverty in India has declined since the mid-1970s. This study contests this view by examining the suitability of the database and its implications for the observed trends in poverty estimates in the context of structural changes in the rural economy. It contends that the statistical estimates do not show a real reduction in poverty but only a reduction in overestimation of poverty for the initial years followed by its underestimation for the later years.