ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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A False Dilemma of Economic Reform

88 to 96 per cent of the normal. However, half the south-west monsoon season, i e, June and July is now already over. The behaviour of south-west monsoon so far revealed that though its onset was delayed by about a week, total rainfall this year has been normal and well distributed over space so far. As on July 31, 1997, 29 out of 35 meteorological sub-divisions had received normal rainfall and for the country as a whole total rainfall was observed as 98 per cent of long period average value for this time of the year. This shows that if south-west monsoon continues to behave favourably in rest of the season the country may expect a normal rainfall, but closer to the upper range of the IMD's forecast, i c, 96 per cent of the normal. Taking into consideration various scenarios of rainfall situation and predicted forecasting models, the forecasts of production of major kharif foodgrains for 1997-98 are shown in Table 6.

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