Happenstance Mainly

THE economic reformers in the government will no doubt regard the CSO's quick estimates of national income and related aggregates for 1994-95, just released, as a well- deserved pat on their backs. The figures do show that the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) at 1980-81 prices has accelerated from 0.9 per cent in 1991 -92 to 4.3 per cent in 1992-93, 5 per cent in 1993-94 and now to 6.3 per cent in 1994-95, Whal is not so certain is that this has very much to do with the economic policies pursued by the government from 1990-91. It will be even more hazardous to rush to the conclusion that the Indian economy has moved to a higher trajectory of self-sustaining growth. In fact there are good reasons for believing that such is not the case. The most that can be said is that statistically speaking, the momentum of growth lost during the initial structural adjustment period has been recovered, the result partly of certain fortuitous circumstances and partly of the flood of liquidity let into the system having stimulated industrial activity.