Monsoons and the Economy

Monsoons and the Economy T K Velayudham Reserve Bank of India, Annual Report, 1986-87, September 1987, pp 105, unpriced. REPORTING in 1925; the Royal Commission on Indian Agriculture described the Indian economy as a gamble on the monsoon. Adapting this description to a more specific problem, a finance member of the Viceroy's Council of pre-independence days (perhaps, Sir Jeremy Raisman) observed that the Indian budget was a gamble on the monsoon. Though much time has elapsed since then, the present situation in the country suggests that the gamble on the monsoon persists regardless of whether it is the economy or the budget. No doubt, as a result of planned development, improved irrigation facilities and improved agricultural production techniques, vulnerability of agriculture to the caprices of the monsoon is somewhat reduced. But the five-year cycle of the monsoon seems to be deteriorating