Whichever way the current confrontation ends, either with a war or without one, there are two likely developments about which one can be reasonably sure: The attempt to install an alternative government in Iraq may well lead to chaos and anarchy in that country on a scale perhaps bigger than in post-Taliban Afghanistan. Secondly, there surely will be an Islamic backlash perhaps in the form of more terrorist attacks against Islam's perceived enemies. And, this could well cost us heavily.