ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

V N MisraSubscribe to V N Misra

Trade Policy, Agricultural Growth and Rural Poor

This paper attempts to examine (i) how changes in trade policy introduced during the nineties have influenced the domestic inter-sectoral terms of trade, being the mechanism through which the impact of macro policies such as monetary, exchange rate and trade are transmitted to the agricultural sector; (ii) the impact of terms of trade and trade policy among others on aggregate crop output and private investment in agriculture over the period; (iii) whether trade policy and devaluation of rupee among others have helped in raising agricultural exports; and (iv) how the aggregate crop output and terms of trade have influenced rural poverty and real agricultural wages of unskilled workers over the period.

Price and Non-Price Determinants of Rural Poverty

estimating relative price in this equation. This seems to have created problem re- Price and Non-Price Determinants of Rural Poverty A Critique V N MISRA It has been argued in this note that the impact of relative prices on rural poverty became non-significant in the recent paper (1998b) by B M Desai and N V Namboodiri (hereafter as DN) probably because it is being included in the equation along with the Consumer Price Index Numbers of Agricultural Labours (CPIAL) measuring thereby the inflation in explaining the changes in rural poverty during the period 1961-62 to 1993-94. Similarly, the explanation for significantly negative coefficient for the distribution in ownership of landholdings is rather misplaced, because it did not change during the last two decades. It seems to have been influenced by other factors included in the equation. Further, it is difficult to rely on the ranking among the variables based on the standardised coefficients due to the non-inclusion of the most important variable like real agricultural wages capturing the impact of rural labour market on the rural poverty in the explanatory framework. As a result, the various trade-offs regarding policy issues based on the coefficients are likely to change if the real agricultural wage is included into the equation. Therefore, for various policy issues, the study of DN is much to be desired. The rationale for these comments would be evident from the following discussion on their findings.

Price and Non-Price Determinants of Rural Poverty

Price and Non-Price Determinants of Rural Poverty V N Misra Introduction IT is argued here that the impact of relative prices on rural poverty became non-significant in the recent article by B M Desai and N V Namboodiri (hereafter as DN) (1998b) probably because it is being included in the equation along with the consumer price index numbers of agricultural labours (CPIAL) measuring thereby the inflation in explaining the changes in rural poverty during the period 1961-62 to 1993-94. Similarly, the explanation for significantly negative coefficient for the distribution in ownership of landholdings is rather misplaced, because it did not change during the last two decades. It seems to have been influenced by other factors included in the equation. Further, it is difficult to rely on the ranking among variables based on standardised coefficients due to the non-inclusion of the most important variable like real agricultural wages capturing the impact of rural labour market on rural poverty in the explanatory framework. As a result, the various tradeoffs regarding policy issues based on the coefficients are likely to change if the real agricultural wage is included in the equation. Therefore, for various policy issues, the study of DN is much to be desired. The rationale for these comments would be evident from the following discussions on their findings.

Economic Reforms, Terms of Trade, Aggregate Supply and Private Investment in Agriculture-Indian Experience

Supply and Private Investment in Agriculture Indian Experience V N Misra The favourable terms of trade to agriculture, in the process of economic reforms, seem to have helped in raising aggregate output and private investment in Indian agriculture. While discussing the results of econometric analysis, it has been shown that one is likely to get a positve coefficient for the terms of trade either by incorporating the interaction term between the terms of trade and technology or by estimating the Nerlovian adjustment lag model by including the important factors directly related to production in the equation.

Economic Reforms, Terms of Trade, Aggregate Supply and Private Investment in Agriculture-Indian Experience

Supply and Private Investment in Agriculture Indian Experience V N Misra The favourable terms of trade to agriculture, in the process of economic reforms, seem to have helped in raising aggregate output and private investment in Indian agriculture. While discussing the results of econometric analysis, it has been shown that one is likely to get a positve coefficient for the terms of trade either by incorporating the interaction term between the terms of trade and technology or by estimating the Nerlovian adjustment lag model by including the important factors directly related to production in the equation.

Price and Non-Price Factors in Agricultural Investments

Price and Non-Price Factors in Agricultural Investments V N Misra P B R Hazell Introduction IN our paper [Mian and Hazeil 1996] we included an analysis of the determinants of private investment in Indian agriculture, which has generated considerable debate. Our results showed that while the domestic terms of trade and technological change (as represented by the spread of HYVs) were significantly and positively related to private capital formation, public capital formation was not a significant determining factor. This result challenged the much cherished assumption that public and private investment are complementary.

Price and Non-Price Factors in Agricultural Investments

Price and Non-Price Factors in Agricultural Investments V N Misra Peter B R Hazell THE critical observations by B D Dhawan (1996; BD hereafter) on our paper (Misra and Hazell 1996] are primarily concerned about estimated private investment equation. He thinks that we give too much emphasis to the price factor and not enough to the role of public investments while interpreting the results. Indeed, he accuses us of being excessively zealous in underscoring the role of prices. His comments seem misplaced when viewed within the broader context of our paper. We attempted to analyse the role of price and non-price factors in determining the complex interrelationships among agricultural output, investment and rural poverty. Our general finding is that non- price factors, especially investments in irrigation and improved technology are crucial for agricultural growth and alleviation of rural poverty. The fact that we also find that the private component of these investments responds positively to more favourable prices hardly leads us to conclude that the public component of these investments is not also vital. What follows is a brief discussion on the important points raised by BD on our paper.

Terms of Trade, Rural Poverty, Technology and Investment-The Indian Experience, 1952-53 to 1990-91

Investment The Indian Experience, 1952-53 to 1990-91 V N Misra Peter B R Hazell This paper, to begin with, presents some reflections on interrelationships among the terms of trade, rurofpoverty, technology, investment and growth performance in three different phases of development covering the four decades of Indian agriculture (i e, 1952-53 to 1990-91). It then concentrates on examining relationships in the econometric framework during the entire period of analysis.

Some Aspects of Rural Industrialisation

T S Papola V N Misra The rationale for the emphasis on rural industrialisation in the development policy in India lies primarily in the following objective conditions. First, agricultural growth, even if rapid to the extent feasible, is unlikely to be able to provide productive employment to all the labour force in the rural areas. Second, underemployment among even those engaged in agriculture would continue following from the very nature of agricultural activities. Third, the organised industrial sector, mainly concentrated in urban areas, has not been growing fast enough to absorb the growing labour force in the cities, let alone the rural workers migrating to seek work in the urban industrial sector.

Fertiliser Use and Efficiency in Resource Allocation-A Study of Paddy Crop in an IADP Block

There are two other circumstances which may influence the US attitude : its growing economic involvement in South Africa and the tact that then- arc over 10 million blacks in America. Since the World War II a consortium of US banks have extended about $ 60 million of credit to South Africa. The overall US investment earnings in South Africa have averaged between 11 and 27 per cent and US investment represents about 35 per cent of total American investment in the African continent.17 With possibilities of further involvement, it is reasonable to deduce that the United States cannot always maintain a low-profile in southern Africa. Secondly, in order to satisfy its black population

New Agricultural Strategy and Small Farmers-A Case Study in Gujarat

Review of Agriculture March 1969 Notes 1 For a fuller discussion of the implication of labour productivity in the agricultural sector for a wages policy, see D R Khatkhate : "towards a Meaningful Wages Policy", 2 Agricultural Labourers in Four Indian Villages (mimeographed), edited by V S Vyas, Sardar Vallabhbhai Vidyapeeth, Vallabh Vidyanagar, 1964 3 "Plight of the Landless : Two Million Victims of Paralysis". Times of India, December 30, 1968.
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