ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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New Evidence on Child Mortality in Iraq

This paper examines new evidence on the level and trend of child mortality in Iraq. Until recently, it has generally been thought that there was a sharp rise in the level of child mortality in the country during the early 1990s as a result of the first Gulf war and the accompanying United Nations economic sanctions. The main basis for this view was a survey conducted in 1999. However, estimates of the level and trend in child mortality are now available from two additional surveys. Neither of the new sets of estimates show any sign of a sharp increase in child mortality in the early 1990s. Therefore it seems probable that, as was suggested by a report in 2005, the 1999 survey data were deliberately manipulated by the then government of Iraq.

Child Mortality in Iraq since 1990

This paper examines the evidence on child mortality in Iraq, with particular reference to the period 1991-2003. It questions recent work which has suggested that excess mortality in the years that followed the first Gulf war was only relatively modest in scale. An integrated account of child mortality trends is assembled. This indicates that mortality rose sharply in the early 1990s. It is likely that the United Nations Oil for Food Programme had a limited beneficial effect during 1998-2001, but this was lost in 2002 and 2003 with the build-up to war and the subsequent US/UK invasion. The dominant picture is one of greatly elevated mortality between 1991 and 2003, with very many excess child deaths.

Pravin Visaria: An Appreciation

In Pravin Visaria, who died in February this year, India has lost one of its foremost social scientists, and this loss is keenly felt also by his many friends in the wider demographic and social science community.

India's Demographic and Food Prospects

This paper is a state-level analysis of India's demographic and food prospects. The first part of the paper that contains new population projections argues that future demographic growth will probably be a little less than estimated although the country's population will still go on to exceed 1.5 billion. The second part of the paper assesses the future demand for cereals and other foods in 2020 and concludes that the real production challenge relates to vegetables, fruit and milk.

On the Demography of the 1991 Census

Tim Dyson India's true population size is very much larger than is indicated by the census and the post-enumeration check results are a poor indicator of the true level of underenumeration. While there has probably been considerable fertility and mortality decline in India during the 1980s, it is much less certain that the last decade has witnessed any reduction in the rate of population growth. A picture of constant rate of population growth between 1971-81 and 1981-91 is far more convincing coupled with a higher rate of all-India growth during the 1961-71 decade.

Bihar Famine, 1966-67 and Maharashtra Drought, 1970-73-The Demographic Consequences

Bihar Famine, 1966-67 and Maharashtra Drought, 1970-73 The Demographic Consequences Tim Dyson Arup Maharatna This paper compares the demographic consequences of the food crises in Bihar in 1966-67 and Maharashtra in 1970-73 in the light of recent writings by Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, It argues that while the available data show little sign of excess mortality in Bihar, we probably cannot exclude this possibility Certainly, mortality appears to have risen in the districts of southern Bihar, which were also those most affected by production failure.

Excess Male Mortality in India

Excess Male Mortality in India Tim Dyson Male life expectation at birth in India slightly exceeds that of females

Preliminary Demography of 1981 Census

The purpose of this paper is to examine the results of the 1981 census. Its main conclusion is that fertility declines are occurring in at least seven of the main states, and very possibly several more. Also, despite appearances to the contrary, the real underlying rate of population growth has very probably slowed during the last decade. Therefore, so far as fertility trends are concerned, the census results' warrant a posture of cautious optimism, rather than one of consternation or dismay.

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