ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Trade and External Sector Reforms in Developing Asia An Overview

Developing Asia: An Overview Srinivasa Madhur The rags-to-riches stories of economic success of Newly Industrialised Countries (NICs) have made trade liberalisation and exchange reforms a fad in south and south-east Asian countries. These countries are proceeding with reforms at a breakneck speed to make up for the 'precious time lost'. The reforms which South Korea and Taiwan implemented during the course of two decades are being carried out overnight.

Monitoring Budget Deficits-A Time Series Model for India

Monitoring Budget Deficits A Time Series Model for India Srinivasa Madhur Wilima Wadhwa This paper addresses some important issues arising out of the finance ministry's 'Technical Note on Monitoring Budget Deficits' relaesed in August 1990. The paper then develops a simple seasonal ARIMA model for monthly budget deficits and subjects it to forecasting tests. It is found that the out of sample forecasts generated from this model are superior to the B-J forecasts presented in the finance ministry's Technical Note. The paper ends by indicating the scope for further work in modelling the budget deficit.

Informal Credit Markets and Monetary Policy

Informal Credit Markets and Monetary Policy Shankar Acharya Srinivasa Madhur INTRODUCTION IN our paper 'Informal Credit Markets and Black Money: Do They Frustrate Monetary Policy' (see Acharya and Madhur, 1983), we had tried to tackle the issue of whether the existence of an informal credit market and 'black liquidity' undermines the operation of official monetary and credit policy at the aggregate level. To address this issue, we formulated a simple model of the markets for commercial bank credit and informal credit and the interactions between them.

The Industrial Sector in India-A Quantitative Analysis

A Quantitative Analysis Ashok Kumar Lahiri Srinivasa Madhur Dipankar Purkayastha Prannoy Roy This paper attempts an empirical investigation of the factors affecting output, prices, wages and raw material costs in the factory sector of Indian industry. It forms part of a larger system of equations which together constitute a macro-econometric model of the Indian economy The focus of the study is on the price-quantity adjustment mechanism in Indian industry with specific attention to the role of government policies and international trade in the determination of output and prices. Since there has been considerable diversity in the behaviour of the different constituents of the industrial sector in India, the model is constructed in a disaggregated four-sector framework classified on the basis of end-use: consumer goods, capital goods, basic goods and intermediate goods.

Informal Credit Markets and Black Money-Do They Frustrate Monetary Policy

Informal Credit Markets and Black Money Do They Frustrate Monetary Policy? Shankar Acharya Srinivasa Madhur This paper deals with the issue of whether the existence of an informal credit market and 'black liquidity undermines the operation of official monetary and credit policy at the aggregate level To address this issue the authors have formulated a simple model which characterises demand and supply in the formal and informal credit markets as well as the links between them.

The Budget, Money and Credit-A Macroeconometric Analysis

The Budget, Money and Credit A Macroeconometric Analysis Srinivasa Madhur Pulin Nayak Prannoy Roy The authors here present a model of the fiscal and monetary sectors of the Indian economy for short-term macro economic forecasting and policy formulation and, in particular, for analysing the implications of the annual budget of the Central government for the economy at large. The effect of the budget on certain key macro variables such as money, credit and inflation is sought to be studied with the help of the model It is seen that many of the policy variables in the monetary sector which earlier investigations seemed to find insignificant can in fact be important and effective instruments in the hands of policymakers. It is also found that in formulating its interest rate policy, it is futile for the central bank to raise or lower all rates of interest by a common factor
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