Articles by Sandeep Shastri

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections saw an effort by the Bharatiya Janata Party to project leadership as a key strategy in its campaign. The response of the electorate provided important indications of the effect of leadership on the outcome of elections in India. The effect of the leadership issue needs to be viewed in the context of a United Progressive Alliance government that was on the defensive and a Congress leadership that looked ineffective and directionless. These added weight to the BJP's projection of Narendra Modi as a decisive, effective and experienced leader.

A post-poll survey of the National Election Study 2009 reveals that no single national leader managed to either catch the imagination of more than 20% of the respondents or drive voting preferences in the Lok Sabha election of 2009. The limited impact of the leadership factor in this election was not only seen in the lower intensity with which party supporters backed their projected leaders, but also in the perception of those who supported the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party alliances. This points to the states and the leadership therein as crucial factors that determined the poll outcome. Data shows the issues that define and determine voter choice even in a parliamentary election are those relevant and specific to a particular state.

The simultaneous Lok Sabha and assembly elections in Karnataka reveal an interesting duality of trends. While there was a clear vote in favour of the ruling NDA alliance in the centre, the anti-Congress vote in the state was split between the BJP and the Janata Dal (S). With the strong showing of the Janata Dal (S) in the state polls, it is clear that the earlier dominance of the two-party system in the state is moving towards a competitive multipolarity. In turn, this current phase may well form only a transitory phase as the state moves towards a new bipolarity.