ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

S L ShettySubscribe to S L Shetty

Demonetisation: 1978, the Present and the Aftermath

In the context of the demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 notes, the issuance of currency and its different denominations are traced over time, while also tracking key macroeconomic features of India's changing economy over the decades. Further, the possible immediate and longer term economic effects of demonetisation are discussed.

A Banker's Account

No Regrets by D N Ghosh; New Delhi: Rupa Publications, 2015; pp xi + 375, ₹695 (hardcover).

Underutilised Fiscal Space

The hike in tax devolution to states by the Fourteenth Finance Commission to give a larger fiscal space to the states has meant sharp cuts for centrally-sponsored schemes. Studying the case of Maharashtra, it is found that without adequate norms and yardsticks of development expenditure, the state has failed to exploit its fiscal potentials.

Budget 2016

Yet another opportunity--this time blessed by windfall gains from lower global crude oil prices--has been bypassed. Budget 2016 sticks to fiscal consolidation and ends up producing a budget where off-budget borrowings help the numbers showing fiscal rectitude and the budget unrealistically increases tax revenue, and within that focuses on the more regressive indirect taxes.

Continuous Revisions Cast Doubts on GDP Advance Estimates

Two recent press releases by the Central Statistics Office substantially revise the new series of National Accounts Statistics. The new releases are more than just routine updates, and entail methodological changes and incorporate new sources of data, perhaps in response to various critiques. Yet, on comparing the advance estimates released with past such estimates, the CSO's latest growth projections once again turn out to be far too optimistic.

Some Puzzling Features of India's Recent GDP Numbers

An analysis of the end-November 2015 data release of the Central Statistics Offi ce raises some issues that must be kept in mind while discussing the state of India's economy. If past trends are anything to go by, economic growth in 2015-16 will not improve in the last quarter as some seem to hope. The movements in the GDP defl ators and the very odd behaviour of a gradual decline in the investment rate together indicate that growth in 2015-16 will not end as earlier forecast.

Gross Value Added

To estimate gross value added for the manufacturing sector, the 2011-12 National Accounts Statistics series follows the "single deflation" instead of the "double deflation" method. In this note, it is argued that the double deflation method estimates come closer to the Index of Industrial Production growth estimates, and that this reinforces the view that gross value added of manufacturing is overestimated in the 2011-12 series. This has an impact on overall GDP growth numbers, which too end up lower than in the new series.

Remembering V V Bhatt

A tribute to V V Bhatt, a pioneering economist of the post-independence decades, who at the Reserve Bank of India led a group of economists in creative and independent thinking, not afraid of speaking their minds.

RBI Balance Sheet in Recent Years

The Reserve Bank of India's latest accounts indicate that the structure of earnings has clearly shifted to domestic sources, particularly from assets. Further, the RBI has made large transfers to the Government of India over the past few years at the cost of maintaining critical reserves to ensure the fi nancial stability of the central bank. The RBI has not made public a report that is said to provide justification for such a shift in policy. This goes against the post-financial crisis view that central bank operations must be more transparent and open to public scrutiny.

Sixth Economic Census 2013

The provisional results of the Sixth Economic Census (2013) of establishments in the non-agricultural sector suggest that this is not a census count. A comparison with the National Sample Survey numbers shows that the number of workers in the latest census may be only a little over half the actual number. There also appear to be some serious omissions in individual states.

Financial Inclusion

The prime minister's mission on financial inclusion for all by 2018 is not a new programme, there have been variants initiated by the Reserve Bank of India and there was another proposal of the Ministry of Finance as well. The new programme as it stands has few details and does not seem to recognise the enormity of the infrastructural and human resource challenges that must be overcome and the scaling up expected of the banking sector. There also seems to be a lack of coordination between the RBI and the Government of India.

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