ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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The Budget and Customs Duties

Given that in the last five years there has been little reduction in the general level of tariff rates and that a very low level of tariff is being set as the goal for the near future, a good beginning could have been made in the budget for 2001-2002 by reducing both the peak rates of duty and the average rate. But, despite all the talk of 'second generation reforms', the finance minister has failed to seize the opportunity to take a bold step forward.

Removal of QRs and Impact on India's Import

This article estimates the likely increase in India's imports as a result of the removal of quantitative restrictions for some items under (i) the India-US mutual agreement, and (ii) EXIM 2000-01. It points out that for such items, tariff rates are now the only instrument of trade policy.

From Marrakesh to Seattle

The Agreement on Agriculture (AOA), one of the major agreements signed in Marrakesh under the Uruguay Round in April 1994, has three basic clauses; market access (tariffication), domestic support and export competition. The authors review India's status with regard to each one of these and also try to compare it with what is happening in the rest of the world, especially how the developed countries are adjusting their agricultural policies to make them compatible with the provisions of the AOA. In the light of this analysis, they delineate the broad contours of an agenda for Indian negotiators in the Seattle round with respect to these three clauses, keeping India's interests in mind. Section II of the paper concentrates on the issue of market access, Section III on domestic support and Section IV on export competition. Section V presents some concluding remarks and also refers to some other important issues that too need to be taken care of in the Seattle round.

Trade Policy Reforms, 1991-92 to 1995-96-Their Impact on External Trade

Their Impact on External Trade Rajesh Mehta In this study an attempt has been made to analyse the impact of India's recent trade policy reforms on external trade. Our results show that the liberalisation process has led to significant decline in the protection of Indian industry

Short-Term Econometric Forecasting Models in India-A Study in Prediction Performance

Short-Term Econometric Forecasting Models in India A Study in Prediction Performance Kalyan Raipuria Rajesh Mehta This paper reports the results of an analysis of the observed deviations in actuals compared to forecasts of short- term econometric forecasting models for the Indian economy and concludes that the models need constant development in terms of specification and identification corresponding to the movement of the economy and changes in the behaviour of the economic actors and in their interrelationships.

Role of Public and Private Sectors in India s Development-Selected Simulations from a Macroeconometric Model

Development Selected Simulations from a Macroeconometric Model Kalyan Raipuria Rajesh Mehta The authors'analysis shows that the present discussion in the country on the role of the public and private sectors in the economy is misplaced. While the public sector needs reforms, the possibilities of substitution by the private sector are extremely limited given the stage and the structure of the economy. The strategy of their complementary roles in promoting the growth of the economy remains valid. While there is scope for improving the production function of both the sectors, the channels and instruments of increasing the role of the private sector in the non-agricultural sector need careful consideration if changes are not to lead to crises of growth and balance of payments.

East European Developments-Impact on Trade of Developing Countries

East European Developments Impact on Trade of Developing Countries R G Nambiar Rajesh Mehta G A Tadas This article makes an attempt to evaluate the potential impact of East's entry into the 'global economic zoo' on developing countries particularly from the standpoint of latter's trade opportunities in the nineties. The East's entry into the world's free markets' appears to have ruinous ramifications for developing countries' trade. There are two circumstances which reinforce this conclusion. The first is the findings of the 1980s which show a firm trend of trade diversion that has already begun to flush out the developing countries not only from the markets of North, but also from its own markets. The second circumstance is the apparent tendency for the structure of intra-East Europe trade to be very similar to the export structures of the developing countries.

Tariffs and Foreign Prices-Some Further Evidence

Some Further Evidence Rajesh Mehta R G Nambiar The inverse relationship between tariffs and relative foreign prices that was established in an earlier empirical exercise (EPW, June 13, 1987) is confirmed by more refined statistical investigations.

Effect of Tariffs on Foreign Prices-The Case of India

The Case of India R G Nambiar Rajesh Mehta There appears to be an asymmetrical link between tariff rates and prices to this country relative to prices to the rest of the world. The latter has a tendency to be low when tariff is high and conversely tend to be high when tariff is low. One important implication of this is that substantial tariff reductions in the presence of imperfections in the world market are suspect; the foreign producer would rob some, if not all, of the benefits of such tariff reductions. Instead, a rise in tariff might be rightly placed; it would exert pressure upon the foreign producer to absorb the tariff hike.
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