ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

R B BarmanSubscribe to RSS - R B Barman

Indian Official Statistics

Official statistics is a public good that informs, supports, and sustains democracy and advances socio-economic development. The Indian statistical system is analysed and methods for modernising it are suggested by using information and communications technology to improve the quality, credibility, coherence, and timeliness of data. An integrated, decentralised information system populated with granular data will enable data to be carried flexibly wherever required, queried, and analysed in business contexts at all levels of governance for a deeper insight. Such a system will help the government to inform stakeholders about the economy and honour our commitments to the United Nations resolution of 2014.

Rethinking Economics, Statistical System and Welfare

The paper picks up what can be called as a thread of discontentment in conventional macroeconomics through a brief review of literature, carefully chosen to bring home the importance of micro, to justify that it can give a realistic framework of analysis of the economy. To support research for validation of alternative theories challenging the rational approach, deeply rooted in the general equilibrium theory, we need empirical evidence linking the micro with the macro. The idea is to seek conformance of these theories based on ground realities and to consider institutions and governance as important components of this analysis. The existing statistical system in India needs to be reoriented following the System of National Accounts 2008 on microdata to capture distributional characteristics of macroaggregates. There is a new direction in applied econometrics based on the idea of stochastic equilibrium which is testable using microdata. The paper touches upon this idea citing a single work.

Measuring Banking Intermediation Services

This paper reviews the methodology for estimating output from banking intermediation services in India. The existing practice is compared with the guidelines provided in the United Nations System of National Accounts 1993. The paper identifies certain unsettled issues and problem areas in measuring banking intermediation services.

Monitoring Budget Deficits through Time Series Models

Time Series Models Introduction ON August 28, 1990 while making a statement in parliament giving, for the first time, the levels of budget deficits as at the end of the first four months of the financial year, the union minister of finance had placed on the table of the house a Technical Note (TN) reviewing the actual developments in the budgetary situation. It was stated that with the deficit at Rs 9,926 crore by end of July 1990, the government had succeeded in reducing the budget deficit by Rs 1,500 crore from the last year's level. The government .expected that the budget deficit at end of March 1991 would be in the range of Rs 7,900-8,500 crore. The TN had tried five methods and had selected Box-Jenkins (Box) method on the basis of its performance in terms of accuracy of forecasts of budget deficits. Madhur and Wadhwa [1991] have suggested an alternative ARIMA model (Box (MW)) for forecasting budget deficits and shown that forecasts generated by that model were superior to those obtained in the TN. This paper explains certain other time series models which prove more accurate for forecasting budget deficits.
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