ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Recent Shenanigans in Indian Statistics

The instances of data suppression and leaks, in recent times, inadvertently reaffirm the integrity and professionalism of the official statisticians, but categorically indicate towards ministerial obtrusion in data dissemination.

How Much Public Debt Is Too Little?

Virtually, the entire literature on public debt is on determining “how much is too much,” beyond which it becomes a systemic threat to the economy. On this basis, about 80 countries, including India, have fiscal rules designed to steadily reduce public debt. This article argues that there is a minimum stock of public debt, below which it is also a systemic threat, and outlines some of the considerations which should be taken into account. It further argues that the composition of public debt is equally important, but has been totally neglected. Both the level and composition of public debt, therefore, should be taken into account while framing fiscal rules.

Investment and Growth

The simplicity of the Harrod–Domar model of growth, which is at the heart of most planning and growth models that exist today, has enabled a significant widening of the range of participants in debates surrounding the needs and prospects of growth in developing countries. Three of the more obvious oversimplifications of the Harrod–Domar model are identified and discussed, and reasonably simple correctives are provided which can be applied even by laypersons to alter their initial assessments and arrive at more realistic and technically justifiable conclusions.

Puzzle of Indian Urbanisation

In India, unlike other countries, migration started to decelerate when the urban population was well below a quarter of the total population. This principal puzzle contains within it other intriguing issues, including, for instance, why more Indians do not migrate voluntarily in response to the growing divergence in economic opportunities between rural and urban areas. There may be better explanations for our low migration rates than wage differentials.

Plan, but Do Not Over-plan

Drawing on six decades of India’s experience with planning, the main lesson for the NITI Aayog is that it must devote as careful thought to the planning process as to the strategic plan itself. It must recognise that it is not engaged in a technical exercise, but one that involves a deep understanding of people and organisational behaviour. The government and the Prime Minister too must realise that they have to play a significant role in articulating an economic vision, as opposed to endorsing suggestions put up by the bureaucracy.

Of Calories and Things

There are two main criticisms of the poverty line, which are in some ways interrelated. The first is that even though the poverty line ensured the consumption of the normative calorie intake in 1973-74, it no longer does so. The second questions the very use of calorie intake as a measure of nutritional adequacy, arguing that such a unidimensional measure may do more harm than good in the measurement of poverty and design of poverty alleviation instruments. This paper seeks to address these criticisms of the extant methodology of deriving the poverty line from an economist's perspective and attempts to bring out some issues which call for further research.

Maxi Devaluations and Contraction

dietary changes associated with economic growth the world over. This implies that as the pressure on the direct (per capita) demand for cereals as food eases, indirect demand will increase, as increasing meat and milk demand exerts in turn a demand for cereals as livestock feed.7 In addition, the results indicate that incorporating regional specificity in demand analysis matters ignoring it may lead to aggregation biases.

Cooper s Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis-A Note

A Note Pronab Sen In recent years a number of studies have questioned the orthodox proposition that a devaluation is always expansionary. The implication of a non-expansionarydevaluation is that in such cases not only are complementary contractionary monetary and fiscal policies unnecessary for making the devaluation 'stick', they may actually prove to be undesirable in the sense that investments even in the traded goods sector may get retarded and thus delay the process of moving to a new and more export- oriented economic structure. Unfortunately, these studies have had virtually no effect on the 'conditionalities' imposed by the Fund-Bank establishment and contractionary policies continue to he routinely prescribed along with somewhat less controversial 'exchange rate adjustments'.

Foreign Direct Investment-A Solution to BOP Problems

Foreign Direct Investment A Solution to BOP Problems?
Pronab Sen This paper addresses the central problematic: Do FDI inflows improve the short-run balance of payments or do they require additional foreign exchange funding in the form of foreign borrowings or through depletion of foreign exchange reserves? The answer to this question is crucial not only for formulating a policy structure for foreign investments but also in determining the position that developing country governments should take with regard to pressures for liberalising controls on foreign equity.

Indian Software Exports An Assessment

Pronab Sen Until 1991-92 there was virtually no policy support for the software sector Since then the government has taken a number of positive steps, hut hesitantly. The general perception about the software industry however continues to be that it will rapidly attain international stature without any policy support.

Telecommunications in India-Imperatives and Prospects

Telecommunications in India Imperatives and Prospects Pronab Sen This paper examines the role of telecom in the economic reform process and the steps that have heen taken to ensure that this infrastructure is made available to the extent that is required.

Monitoring Budget Deficits of Government-An Alternative Methodology

An Alternative Methodology Pronab Sen This paper argues that the Technical Note circulated by the ministry of finance in 1990 on monitoring govern- ment's budget deficit and two subsequent papers on this topic


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