ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

N S S NarayanaSubscribe to N S S Narayana

Impact of Economic Reforms and Macroeconomic Forecasts

The Indian economic reforms of 1991 affected the economy not only in terms of output but brought about some structural changes in the various macroeconomic relationships. We quantify here the impacts and identify which of the macro variables were significantly affected and which could not be the result of the reforms. For the analysis, the technique of interventions analysis of time-series is used. Two kinds of measures are noted: (a) the year-to-year effects, and, (b) the overall growth pattern, during 1991 to 2002-03 due to reforms for each of the variables. Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), investment (GCF) and all the GDP variables except that of services were found to be substantially higher during the post-reforms period than what they would have been in the absence of the reforms. The reforms seem to have made only a marginal impact on investment in the agricultural sector. Unless more reforms are brought in, the GDP may grow at the most only by 6.1 per cent between 2003 and 2010.

Strategies for Agricultural Liberalisation-Consequences for Growth, Welfare and Distribution

This note summarises the results of a recently completed study which examined the impacts of trade liberalisation, agricultural input subsidy reductions and safety net programmes for India with an applied general equilibrium model with nine agricultural sectors, one non-tradeable non-agriculture sector and one tradeable non-agriculture sector and with five rural and five urban income classes. The study demonstrates the importance of accounting for large country effects in rice trade and estimates the optimal tariff/quota for rice exports for India which is found to be just half a million tonnes of net export of rice. The results show that non-agricultural trade liberalisation is even more important for agriculture than even agricultural trade liberalisation, both of which help accelerate growth The study concludes that a policy package involving trade liberalisation with moderate residual taiffas permitted under GATT and agricultural inputs subsidies removal accompanied by targeted safety net programmes along with stepped up investment in irrigation with the expected additional foreign inflows materialising, produces a scenario that is superior from the point of growth, welfare and distribution and that this can be financed without raising taxes.

Agricultural Planning and Policy in Draft Sixth Plan-Will Farmers Fulfil Planners Expectations

This paper examines the methodological procedure followed by the Planning Commission for prescribing the target levels of agricultural output in the Draft Sixth plan. It is argued that the procedure followed is inadequate for a number of reasons, and that for a satisfactory matching of plans and policies an understanding of farm supply responses is essential.

Economic Performance since the Third Plan and Its Implications for Policy

and Its Implications for Policy T N Srinivasan N S S Narayana The publication of the slim volume of the final Fifth Five-Year Plan nearly three years after the beginning of the Fifth Plan Period provides an opportunity to review the performance of the economy since Independence. In many ways the period since 1965-66, the last year of the Third Five-Year Plan, marks a watershed.
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