ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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India-China Trade

The paper first describes the asymmetrical, but nevertheless dynamic, opening up of trade between India and China since the early 1990s. It then addresses the question of the trends which might emerge by 2015 and their implications for the future configuration of world trade. Two scenarios are tested: the continuation of the bilateral trade expansion between the two economies ("Chindia"), or the end of the catching up process and the emergence of a joint "India and China" upsurge at the world level. The latter hypothesis appears more probable considering the models of specialisation and industrial transformation followed by the two countries at both the micro and macroeconomic level. A quantitative assessment for 2015 shows China still largely ahead of India (services are not covered in the study) and a somewhat insignificant India-China bilateral flow at the world level.

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