Articles by Martin Ravallion

The authors revisit the findings of their past research on poverty and growth in India in the light of the 14 rounds of the National Sample Survey now available for the period since economic reforms began in 1991. They find that the rate of poverty reduction has increased in the post-reform period, compared to the previous 30-year period, although it is still too early to say if this marks a new trend. In contrast to the pre-reform period, the post-reform process of urban economic growth appears to have brought significant gains to the rural poor as well as to the urban poor.

In 2005, one in three of the people in the world who consumed less than $ 1.25 a day (at 2005 purchasing power parity) lived in India - more than any other country. They accounted for about 40 per cent of India's population. Twenty-five years earlier, 60 per cent of India's population lived below the same real line. While this is clear progress, India's long-term pace of poverty reduction by this measure is no more than average for the developing world, excluding China. This article first discusses the methodology underlying the World Bank's recent revised estimates of global poverty and then analyses the Indian numbers.

Surjit Bhalla claims that India's poverty rate is now lower than China's, contradicting the estimates published by the World Bank, UNDP and others. However, while there are some puzzles in the data, particularly for India, Bhalla's calculations do not stand up to close scrutiny.

In a new book, Surjit Bhalla purports to overturn prevailing views on how much progress the developing world has been making against absolute poverty. Indeed, Bhalla claims that by 2000 we had already met the Millennium Development Goal of halving the 1990 incidence of extreme poverty - 15 years ahead of time. This would be good news, if it was right. The article offers a critical assessment of Bhalla's arguments and evidence.

A number of conditions determine how much India's poor share in economic growth. The extent to which growth stems from the rural economy, particularly agriculture, is the key. The gains to the poor from non-agricultural growth vary greatly between states, reflecting past attainments in human and physical resource development, especially in rural areas. The lesson for the future is clear: unless these conditions improve, don't expect rapid poverty reduction from growth-promoting economic reforms. There is, however, plenty that can be done now to change those conditions.