ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

M S SeshadriSubscribe to M S Seshadri

COVID-19 Mortality Trends and Reporting

During the early phase of the coronavirus pandemic, Italy had a high infection burden and death rate while India appeared much less affected. By 22 May, Italy and India had 3,770 and 86 infections/million population with mortality rates of 14.24% and 3.03%, respectively. There was speculation about hidden advantages to India leading to a false sense of security. These differences are readily explained by the time and frequency of virus importations and the differences of the age profile of Italy and India.

Underestimation of the COVID-19 Burden

The number infected with SARS-CoV-2 in early May in India is estimated by a method utilising the unequivocal number available, namely deaths due to COVID-19. The estimated numbers are far in excess of reported numbers and indicate the systemic flaws in reporting deaths in India, augmenting the extent of underestimation. Additionally, there is the overestimation of the doubling time of infection. A realistic picture of the epidemic at the community level is presented, which informs us about the level of preparedness required to deal effectively with the epidemic.
Back to Top