ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Short-Term Econometric Forecasting Models in India-A Study in Prediction Performance

Short-Term Econometric Forecasting Models in India A Study in Prediction Performance Kalyan Raipuria Rajesh Mehta This paper reports the results of an analysis of the observed deviations in actuals compared to forecasts of short- term econometric forecasting models for the Indian economy and concludes that the models need constant development in terms of specification and identification corresponding to the movement of the economy and changes in the behaviour of the economic actors and in their interrelationships.

Development Priorities-Practical Issues of Methodology and Modelling

Practical Issues of Methodology and Modelling Kalyan Raipuria In arriving at the total outlayfor the Five-Year Plans, the sectorwise allocations and priorities for the plan-period broadly follow a macro-model But we do not have a model for annual plan exercises and the prioritisation to be followed, though the sectoral allocation of resources by the planning system amounting to more than a hundred thousand crore rupees annually profoundly affects the future of the economy and the people. This paper looks at annual forecasting models outside the planning system and seeks to indicate some specifics of research and action required for development of annual plan modelling.

Financial Transfers to States-Issues and Outlook

Issues and Outlook Kalyan Raipuria A review of the sustainability of the financial transfers to the states, given the imperative of containing the centre's fiscal deficit, raises a host of issues, notably whether the existing bases for the transfers have major weaknesses and whether the rationale of the transfers has been only partially understood.

Role of Public and Private Sectors in India s Development-Selected Simulations from a Macroeconometric Model

Development Selected Simulations from a Macroeconometric Model Kalyan Raipuria Rajesh Mehta The authors'analysis shows that the present discussion in the country on the role of the public and private sectors in the economy is misplaced. While the public sector needs reforms, the possibilities of substitution by the private sector are extremely limited given the stage and the structure of the economy. The strategy of their complementary roles in promoting the growth of the economy remains valid. While there is scope for improving the production function of both the sectors, the channels and instruments of increasing the role of the private sector in the non-agricultural sector need careful consideration if changes are not to lead to crises of growth and balance of payments.

Resource Mobilisation for Public Sector Development

Sector Development A PLANNED and balanced approach to generation and mobilisation of resources, parallel to a definite strategy, is crucial for development in the desired direction. The direction in India is identified with faster growth, increased social justice and economic self-reliance over the period. Of late, increased competitiveness is recognised as an important prerequisite for the given direction. While faster growth implies higher and efficiently generated resources, social justice as well as competitiveness call for low-cost production and services, in turn, also requiring reasonable internal resource generation supplemented by financially prudent and non-inflationary mobilisation of resources from the domestic and the world economy.

Managing a Development Information System-Strategies and Methodologies

This paper briefly introduces the concept of Development Information System and the system as it has evolved during the last forty years and as it is managed presently in India. The strategies and methodologies followed are briefly reviewed. The paper points to the major limitations of the system which remain in the light of the emerging information requirements. The problems and challenges are then briefly discussed. The paper, at the end, includes some reflections on future strategy and methodologies based on the review and concludes with certain issues related to DIS.

Theory and Practice of Estimating Domestic Resources Cost in India

This paper discusses the specific deficiencies of the present DRC estimation practices in India and what can be done to improve upon them keeping in view the theoretical backdrop and recent developments. In doing so, certain estimation problems faced by the researchers are raised. It is maintained that alternatives exist to tackle the problems of estimation which should be adapted in analyses of DRC-based comparative advantage of Indian industry.

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