ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Kalyan RaipuriaSubscribe to Kalyan Raipuria

Price Stability and Futures

Farmers growing agricultural commodities have suffered due to price fluctuations but not all risk in production management is exogenous. Imperfect information systems and methods of analysis also share part of the blame. Traditional stabilisation funds and subsidies are distortionary and a more efficient market mechanism to manage price risk may be the use of futures.

Dynamics of Inflation in Services

Price developments in services need to be analysed on the basis of CPI to study their contribution to inflation in relation to that of goods. At present, services sectors account for almost 50 per cent of the aggregate GDP. Higher price increases, rising productivity and increased tradability could create a â??virtuous circleâ?? associated with a higher share of services in GDP. However, reforms and privatisation programmes, if not associated with increased efficiency, may also contribute to a rise in charges and services prices.

'Fair Price' for Commodities

Along with the price stabilisation fund recently set up for four commodities, what is needed to enable growers to realise a 'fair price' is to expand the market by investing in value orientation, which will require joint participation by growers, states and financial institutions.

ASEAN and SAARC

If SAARC is to unlock growth through regional economic integration, it will need major policy and planning changes to open borders and spur investment. It needs to study the parameters of regional cooperation followed by ASEAN countries in achieving high levels of 'economic openness'.

Futures Trading: 'Locking in' Profitable Prices

Futures trading has existed in India in several commodities, but has been a small town phenomenon covering low volumes and entry restricted and controlled by dominant producers. Given the importance of foreign trade in the growth process and agricultural commodities in India's exports the importance of reformed 'futures trading' cannot be overemphasised.

What Size the 'New' Economy?

Efforts need to be made to scientifically assess the size, coverage and growth of the 'new', or information technology, economy in India. Econometric models have so far ignored the sector in their analyses and forecasts, as no benchmark estimates are available. The estimates can be attempted on the basis of analysis of GDP estimates of IT-using sectors. The estimates can be cross-checked from private consumption vector, IT spending, and physical indicators of the progress of the IT sector. It is important to study the effect of the emerging IT economy on productivity to gauge the GDP contribution of the IT sector.

Service Exports

In the new millennium, with information and communications technology led global progress, trends point to a major expansion in the world trade in services, particularly 'other services'. India is in a good position in the league of service exporters among the developing countries. But this advantage is yet to be fully reflected in our exports of 'other services'.

Electronic Commerce

Consumers and businesses the world over are switching to the use of computers for many commercial activities. Electronic commerce is no longer an add-on to a business, it is a necessity of survival and growth in the competitive global market. This article views the status of electronic commerce in the world and in India, and makes policy suggestions.

Conference of Economists

The annual conference of the Indian Economic Association showed the gap between academics and policy-making. So long as theoreticians remain unconcerned with the practical value of their work, such conferences will remain mere carnivals.

Euro and Emerging Commercial Opportunities

The emergence of the euro as Europe's single currency has been the most important single change in the international economy in the last some quarter of a century. Those, both countries and business organisations, who are quick to take advantage of this momentous development will be the 'winners'.

Foreign Trade Eludes Economic Crystal Ball Gazers

Crystal Ball Gazers Kalyan Raipuria While it is welcome that an increasing number of researchers are taking up short-term forecasting through econometric and computable general equilibrium modelling, foreign trade forecasting requires further development in the models to capture policy changes in the area through appropriate indicators. The need for disaggregated analysis in the models cannot also be over-emphasised. With the growing importance of foreign trade as a means to integrate the Indian economy with the global economy, the effort would indeed be worthwhile, UNDOUBTEDLY, the past year, 1997-98 has been a year of slow down, be it in agriculture, manufacturing or exports, all reflected in estimated growth of GDP at 5 per cent or so. The economy needs a 'kick-start' to recover and march again on the growth path of 7 per cent (or more) achieved during 1994-97, It is, therefore, of interest to gauge the possibility of growth and likely direction of the economy in 1998-99, taking different dimensions, and to know if a 'kick-start' is really in store. Among official forecasts, according to the RBI statement (April 29. 1998) on monetary policy, the growth may be 6.5 percent compared to 5.5 percent last year and inflation is estimated at 5-6 per cent compared to 5 per cent last year. The Asian Development Bank has predicted that India's GDP growth may rebound to 6.7 per cent in 1998-99, due to recovery in agriculture and industry, though creaking infrastureture is a constraint, which may finally bring down the growth rate to the RBI level. There are not many equally credible and comparable forecasts available to derive 'consensus forecasts'. However, a comparative look at the lore- casts by select macro-economic modelling teams enables us to get some idea of the likely pace and direction of the Indian economy.

Export of Services Towards an Integrated Approach

Export of Services: Towards an Integrated Approach Kalyan Raipuria Since the services sector covers a host of activities for which there may be no nodal organisation and a number of government departments may be responsible for supervision, an integrated approach is needed for promotion of export of services. An outline of such an approach.

Pages

Back to Top