ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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Exchange Rates and Trade Balance-Some Aspects of Recent Indian Experience

THE large external trade deficit of the Indian economy is one of the major areas of current concern among economists and policy-makers. A widely held view is that the rupee exchange rate is the most efficacious instrument of policy available to the government, and indeed the past decade has seen a strategy of fairly continuous nominal devaluations and somewhat lesser real depreciations of the rupee in an effort to render the external deficit more tractable. This paper is concerned with investigating some of the issues involved in currency devaluation and depreciation in the recent Indian experience.

Developing Countries Narrowing Options

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Trade and Development Report 1989; Geneva, September UNCTAD must have celebrated its twenty- fifth birthday on a subdued note.3 Its role in influencing cither patterns of international trade and finance or multilateral negotiations has never been so limited. The earlier uniqueness of its position as the only international economic institution with a near universal membership has been eroded by the entry of some socialist states and the proposed entry of others into institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF. And, unlike these bodies, it Jacks the clout that cornes from the ability to disburse resources. Given its increasing impotence in terms of influencing events, the UNCTAD Secretariat has set itself the more limited task of providing a forum for discussion and debate, analysing trends and directions in the world economy, and assessing the efficacy and viability of different attempts at open economy macro- management, This year's Trade and Development Report (hereafter TDR) is one step in this direction. It is an important document which merits consideration from those concerned with economic stra' ,gies in developing countries.

Import Liberalisation and the New Industrial Strategy-An Analysis of Their Impact on Output and Employment

New Industrial Strategy An Analysis of Their Impact on Output and Employment Ajit Singh Jayati Ghosh This paper examines the new industrial strategy arid assesses its consequences for technology, employment and output. This is done at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels, the latter, by assessing the effect of the liberalisation of imports of capital goods on a few, specific domestic capital goods industries. The authors also draw from the experience of Mexico's import liberalisation policies of the 1970s.

Developing Countries and World Economy- A Reading of Some Recent Documents of IMF

Developing Countries and World Economy A Reading of Some Recent Documents of IMF Jayati Ghosh THIS article considers recent trends in the international economy and their implications for the economic prospects and policies of developing countries. The analysis and policy proposals contained in various IMF publications are discussed given this background. In particular, reference is made to the following IMF publications; (1) "Trade Policy Issues and Development" Occasional Paper 28, July 1985.

New Wine without a Bottle

New Wine without a Bottle Jayati Ghosh Report of the Committee on Trade Policies Government of India, Minirtry of Commerce, December 1984. THERE is a hoary old joke about the impossible search for an economist with only one hand, who would be incapable of saying 'on the one hand ... but on the other hand ...' The Report of the Committee on Trade Policies may reaffirm one's faith in the possibility of a one-handed economist (or a group of eminent economists), in terms of the commendable consistency of its policy proposals. But it raises another conundrum: while all the 'fingers' of economic analysis in the Report point to one set of conclusion, the 'index finger' of policy advice points continually to the polar opposite.

Problems of Adjustment and Growth in the World Economy

Problems of Adjustment and Growth in the World Economy Jayati Ghosh Discussing some of the principal features of the present international economy, this paper highlights the effects of economic interdependence on the potential for growth or stagnation in the developed capitalist economies. The author's concern is with the fiscal, monetary and trade policies of the major developed economies and their actual and potential impact on world economic activity. The basic presumption underlying the discussion is that the behaviour of these economies is crucially important for possibilities for adjustments and growth in developing economies as well.

Export Optimism and Import Liberalisation

Export Optimism and Import Liberalisation Jayati Ghosh RECENTLY, Arguments that reject export pessimism and propound a macro-economic strategy which is based on a major aggressive thrust in export markets have become increasingly common in the Indian context. Bhagwati and Srinivasan (EPW; November 24, 1984) have reiterated their well known views that economic policies determined by ''unwarranted export pessimism" have been responsible in large part for India's hitherto unsatisfactory performance. They take issue with Chakravarty (EPW, May 19-26, 1984), who has argued that "at this stage India is unlikely to emerge as a leading actor on the export front". Bhagwati and Srinivasan, by contrast, see substantial export growth as a feasible basis for an Indian development strategy, given micro policies for export promotion and "very good macro policies". The latter arc implicitly seen to be similar to those of South Korea which has successfully restricted the growth of the product wage in industry and thus improved its competitiveness in world markets.1 The issue of export promotion is particularly relevant at the present time when Indian economic policies are undergoing a process of substantial reconsideration and revision. There are two ways of viewing the need for an export promotion strategy. The first, which is related to the general orientation of the growth strategy, is to see export markets as additional or alternative sources of demand which would counteract stagnation or recessionary tendencies in the home market. The second is to view-export growth primarily as a means of acquiring foreign exchange to finance increases in imports. Since these two have varying policy implications, it is necessary to consider each in turn.

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