ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Geetima Das KrishnaSubscribe to Geetima Das Krishna

Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields

Keynes’s supposition of short-term interest rates as the key driver of long-term government bond yields is investigated for India, after controlling for various key economic factors. It is seen that long-term interest rates of Indian government bonds are positively associated with the short-term interest rates of Treasury Bills. Higher long-term interest rates on IGBs are influenced by higher short-term interest rates, higher rates of inflation, a faster pace of industrial production and higher fiscal deficit (and vice versa). The bond market was disrupted during 2013 when yields rose sharply in India. Incorporating this structural break improved our findings.

Indian Exports

A time series of exports indicates that average export growth has remained almost stagnant since January 2012 after a sharp bounce back in the first and second quarters of 2009. This article looks at the composition of India's export basket, export destinations and share in global exports to understand the reasons for the fall in export growth. It concludes that the evident inability to increase India's share in global markets points to the need for a thorough review of the working and performance of export promotion councils and related export agencies.
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