Articles by D P Sharma

Textile Export Prospects Hazy D P Sharma THE way the cotton scenario has unfolded itself has brought into much sharper focus than ever before the imperative need to improve the crop information system. Even the most experienced persons in the trade and industry, who keep a close watch on the progress of the crop and its movement, had not envisaged the kind of change that has come about in the cotton scene over the past few weeks. The altogether tentative estimate, based on the area sown under highly favourable weather conditions, had held out hope of a record crop touching the 140 lakh bales mark. The Cotton Advisory Board which met on August 29 to make a preliminary assess- ment of the 1991-92 crop prospects placed the crop at 130 lakh bales. This figure has since been gradually revised down. The ICMF now expects a crop of 118 lakh bales while the CCl is currently reckoning the crop at 116.5 lakh bales. There are not a few who think that the crop might not exceed 112 lakh bales.

Edible Oils: New Season Outlook D P Sharma THE annual conventions of the all-India oilseeds and oils trade and industry held in November and April are always look- ed forward to with keen interest as much for the opportunity they provide for promoting business contacts as for exchange of views on how the vegetable oils economy would perform during the season beginning with November. No two crop years are really alike because of the varying domestic supply-demand equation and developments in the international environment which have an important bearing on the fortunes of the solvent extraction industry inextricably linked with export prospects.

Enthralled by Liberalisation D P Sharma AFTER beating a strategic retreat from its mid-September all-time high mark and retracing nearly one-fourth of the ground gained since the beginning of the year, the stock market is again firmly set on its journey into space. The October low has not been seen again and the lost ground has been fully recovered. Considering the amplitude and the duration of the virtual non-stop rise from the January low to the September high, the corrective phase has had a very short duration. Last year the corrective phase lasted for nearly four months beginning with October 9 and it retraced almost two-thirds of the preceding rise. The process of technical adjust ment this time was cut short by the re- emergence of good support from institutional investors

Very Different Scenario DESPITE a much smaller opening stock of 19.39 lakh bales (against 30.79 lakh bales last season), extremely restricted supply from the new crop so far and reports of heavy damage to the crop in the central belt because of the drought conditions, cotton prices have come down by Rs 1,800 to Rs 4,500 a candy (11.6 per cent to 26 per cent), according to variety, from their August all-time highs. The current decline is essentially in the nature of a correction of the earlier speculative excesses. The decline in cotton yarn prices (5 per cent to 14-per cent) following the ban on yarn exports has also had a salutary impact on the cotton market.

From Optimism to Anxiety D P Sharma THE country has had a good monsoon for the fourth year in succession