ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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East Asian Dilemma Is There a Way Out

East Asian Dilemma: Is There a Way Out? Jayati Ghosh Abhijit Sen C P Chandrasekhar The financial crises in east and south-east Asia show no signs of resolution, and the IMF medicine that is being imposed on several of the most badly affected economies may actually intensify their problems. But are there any other options now available to countries that had based their rapid economic growth on high rates of investment combined with a mercantilist export strategy?

All Dressed Up and Nowhere to Go-India Infrastructure Report

All Dressed Up and Nowhere to Go India Infrastructure Report Jayati Ghosh Abhijit Sen C P Chandrasekhar The basic strategy proposed in the India Infrastructure Report prepared by the Expert Group on the Commercialisation of Infrastructure Projects appointed by the ministry of finance is for the government to retreat as investor, to provide space for private participation, even while continuing to facilitate and provide numerous financial crutches for the private sector. But even all of these very expensive measures do not guarantee that the private sector would respond positively to invest in areas which are both risky and not-so-profitable.

South-East Asian Economies Miracle or Meltdown

South-East Asian Economies: Miracle or Meltdown? Jayati Ghosh Abhijit Sen C P Chandrasekhar In the past few months several of the more 'successful' of the south-east Asian economies have been plagued by problems of decelerating exports and deteriorating balance of payments positions, slowdowns in output expansion and declines in employment in exporting industries, domestic imbalances requiring stabilisation policies, and the like. The south-east Asian situation is not anywhere near the Mexican case, but the strong dependence on foreign capital does bring out one important similarity that of external vulnerability which also has important policy lessons for other Asian countries.

Explaining Post-Reform Industrial Growth

C P Chandrasekhar A close scrutiny of the estimates of capital formation in the post-reform period shows that no linkage can be established between liberalisation, private investment and industrial growth. What liberalisation has done is to unleash a consumption boom, fuelled by a surge in consumer credit that has accompanied financial sector reform. Such a boom not only increases balance of payments vulnerability, but also offers, in terms of markets, only a once-for all boost that would exhaust itself unless some other stimuli ensure expansion of the home market for manufacturers.

Using Foodstocks Productively

Using Foodstocks Productively Jayathi Ghosh Abhijit Sen C P Chandrasekhar The previous Congress government made a definite choice, in terms cf utilising the surplus public foodgrain stocks, to use them to pay for more liberalised imports rather than to feed the poor in India. However, the existence of these stocks now provides a tremendous opportunity in terms of a substantial non-inflationary expansion in public works and other infrastructure development and maintenance which can be organised through food-for-work and similar schemes.

The Rupee and Its Malcontents-Exchange Rate Management in India

The Rupee and Its Malcontents Exchange Rate Management in India Jayati Ghosh Abhijit Sen C P Chandrasekhar The sources of the current instability in the currency markets - portfolio capital inflows from foreign institutional investors, exporters withholding their foreign exchange earnings and reckless imports and import hunching by domestic firms are rendered the more potent because of the reduced ability of the government to intervene effectively, it having discarded many of the instruments it could earlier have used to determine the exchange rate of the rupee. Having tied its own hands so effectively, the government's external economic policy has become a prisoner of speculative forces rather than their master.

Investment Exports and Growth-A Cross-Country Analysis

Investment, Exports and Growth A Cross-Country Analysis Prabhat Patnaik C P Chandrasekhar Growth experience across underdeveloped countries indicates that it is really the investment ratio which plays the crucial role in determining the growth rate. The so-called 'efficiency of resource use,' over which so much hullabaloo has been raised in recent years, does not, by implication, appear to be a particularly significant factor determining relative growth performance. What is more, even the relative export performance across countries appears to be dependent on the relative investment ratios.

Indian Economy under Structural Adjustment

Prabhat Patnaik C P Chandrasekhar What comes through clearly from the Indian experience with structural adjustment is the dominant role of the process of globalisation of finance. Indeed the very design of the current package of structural adjustment hears the imprint of this process and the sequel to the introduction of the package shows that the real mobility witnessed is that of finance rather than that of capital-in-production.

Life after Enron

Life after Enron Jayati Ghosh Abhijit Sen C P Chandrasekhar The Enron agreement was only one of eight so-called fast track' agreements with multinational companies on terms, essentially dictated by the union ministry of power, which are ruinous for the concerned state governments and for power consumers. However, the danger of focusing only on these specific projects is that attention may be diverted from the more fundamental task of framing a new policy for the power sector. What are the dimensions of the crisis facing the power sector and how can it be resolved? Confusion on these basic issues has led to many reactions to the Enron fiasco which are erroneous and misleading.

Economic Discipline and External-Vulnerability-A Comment on Fiscal and Adjustment Strategies

If two years of 'shock therapy' constitute any evidence, there is no ground for optimism regarding the viability of the government's current strategy either from a growth or from a balance of payments point of view.

Aspects of Growth and Structural Change in-Indian Industry

Indian Industry C P Chandrasekhar After long years of deceleration, the industrial sector has registered rates of growth comparable to the creditable performance during 1950-65. While the evidence of the recovery is somewhat not unequivocal, an understanding of the factors underlying the recovery would call for a study of some major aspects of growth and structural change in Indian industry over the last four decades.

Investment Behaviour, Economies of Scale and Efficiency in an Import-Substituting Regime- A Study of Two Industries

and Efficiency in an Import-Substituting Regime A Study of Two Industries C P Chandrasekhar India's post-independence strategy of import substitution based industrialisation has been subjected to a neoclassical critique from the point of view of efficiency by Bhagwati, Srinivasan, et al The negative aspects like high costs, technological obsolescence and inefficiency are traced to a wide array of controls on trade, capacity creation, production and prices. Votaries of the market mechanism basically arguecapacity creation, etc, have forced sub-optimal decisions on the entrepreneur. There is, as to why controls should necessarily lead to inefficient operation or the adoptionthere is a need for an empirical study of the concrete experience in order to establish that state controls on trade, however, no a priori reason of obsolete techniques. Hence the relation, if any, between controls inefficiency. This paper examines the evidence available in the case of the capital goods and synthetic fibres industry for support of the above mentioned critique of import substitution based industrialisation. It also examines the view that the free play of the market mechanism can do away with the deficiencies of the earlier phase.


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