ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

B B BhattacharyaSubscribe to B B Bhattacharya

Fuel Pricing Policy Reform in India: Implications and Way Forward

This paper undertakes an examination of the differential impact of international oil prices on domestic inflation and output growth in India under two alternative scenarios. One scenario is, when domestic fuel prices are allowed a formula-based automatic alignment with international oil prices and the second, when as per current policy, fuel prices have evolved as a consequence of revisions specified periodically by the government. The differential impact analysis has been undertaken in a structural Vector Autoregressive framework using the technique of innovation accounting.

Forecasting State Domestic Product and Inflation

At present, states in India make their own assessment regarding economic growth for their planning and budgeting purposes. These assessments are mostly derived from judgments rather than from serious econometric modelling. The regional econometric model developed in this paper aims to forecast growth rates of the aggregate and sectoral GSDP for the three states. It attempts to capture the medium-run trends and characteristics of the economy of each state, taking into consideration the structural changes in the Indian economy during the period.

Regional Growth and Disparity in India

Has regional disparity widened in the post-reform period? This study attempts to probe this question by analysing growth rates of aggregate and sectoral domestic product of major states in the pre- and post-reform decades. The results indicate that while the growth rate of gross domestic product has improved only marginally in the post-reform decade, regional disparity in state domestic product (SDP) has widened much more drastically. Industrial states are now growing much faster than backward states, and there is no evidence of convergence of growth rates among states. Disturbingly, there is now also an inverse relationship between population growth and SDP growth. This has serious implications for employment and for the political economy of India.

Changing Composition of Employment in Tertiary Sector-A Cross-Country Analysis

A large number of countries all over the world mostly developing and some industrial are at present implementing stabilisation and structural adjustment programmes. Deregulation and more particularly globalisation in many of these countries are likely to enhance the share of foreign trade in the economy. The domestic production structure is also likely to undergo radical change in the process of deregulation. All these would have a significant effect on the employment structure. The authors ' empirical results suggest that these will affect not only the overall share of the tertiary sector in total employment but will also change the employment structure. The implications of these changes deserve careful analysis.

Employment and Structural Adjustment-A Look at 1991 Census Data

Employment and Structural Adjustment A Look at 1991 Census Data B B Bhattacharya Arup Mitra The 1991 Census data on employment reveal that despite a significant acceleration of the industrial growth rate during the 80s, the share of manufaturing in total employment has declined. The employment elasticity in the manufacturing sector turns out to be as low as 0.2. Further, the employment growth in the private organised manufacturing has been negative during the 80s.

Macro Imbalances, Stabilisation Programme and Union Budget

and Union Budget B B Bhattacharya Given the overall economic background against which the 1991-92 budget has been framed, it was expected that the budget would carryforward the liberalisation programme in the area of fiscal policy. The budget pro- posals are, however, cautious in this regard.

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector B B Bhattacharya Arup Mitra IN response to our paper [Bhattacharya and Mitra, 1990] Nagaraj [1991) questions the empirical justification of the proposition concerning the excess growth of the tertiary sector. He presents some empirical evidence to indicate that the tertiary sector already had a high initial share in net domestic product and in subsequent years has grown slower than the secondary sector. He, however, concedes that during the period 1966-67 to 1976-77 the tertiary sector has grown faster than the secondary sector. But for the period as a whole (1950-51 to 1987-88) and especially in the eighties the tertiary sector has grown slower than the secondary sector. Also he argues that the rate of growth of the percentage share of tertiary sector in NDP has been slower than that of secondary sector.

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector in Indian Economy-Issues and Implications

The continuously increasing trend experienced by the share of the services in national income has given rise to much debate. This paper seeks to investigate the pattern of growth of the tertiary sector and its implications on growth and distribution in India in the post-independence period, 1950-51 to 1986-87. A concluding section discusses the policy implications of the findings of the study.

Internal Public Debt of Government of India-Growth and Composition

This paper analyses the growth and composition of the internal public debt of the government of India during the period 1970-71 to 1987-88. Discussing the concept and measurement of public debt, the authors point out thai the budget classification does not provide a proper measure of the government's internal debt, tending to over-estimate it in some respects and under-estimate it in others. The authors note a significant change in the trend of public debt in the eighties as compared to the seventies and discuss the proximate causes and policy implications of this change.

Industry-Agriculture Growth Rates-Widening Disparity

This study examines the nature and causes of industrial growth in the face of slow agricultural growth. It is hypothesised that the nature of the agriculture-industry relationship would depend crucially on the relative growth of income and employment in not only the industrial sector but also in the tertiary sector. If income grows faster than employment then it tends to generate more demand for industrial goods vis-a-vis agricultural goods, and consequently the disparity between industrial and agricultural growth widens.

Budget Forecasts of Central Government Revenue and Expenditure-A Test of Rational Expectation

This paper evaluates the forecasting efficiency of the central government budget and revised budget estimates. It is found that neither the budget nor revised budget estimates of revenue and expenditure satisfy the criteria of rational expectations of forecasting nor even unbiasedness. There is very little evidence of improvement in the efficiency of budgeting over time.

Union Budget, 1979-80

April 7, 1979 1940s in Mysore. See Dushkin, op cit, 1974, esp chapters 1 and 6. See also James Manor, "Political Change in an Indian State", Mysore 1917-1955. Australian National University Monographs on South Asia No 2 New Delhi: Manohar Books and Columbia Mo : South Asia Books, 1977), passim.
Back to Top