ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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The Chinese Economic Miracle

China's economic growth, since reforms were launched in 1978, is considered an even bigger miracle than the east Asian one. This paper analyses the nature, causes and consequences of the Chinese success story. It contrasts the Chinese reform strategy with those followed in other transition economies, such as the former Soviet Union and east European nations. The paper also addresses the question of sustainability of the miracle in the years to come, and possible lessons for other countries trying to reform their own economies.

State of the Economy Bomb, Budget and Beyond

This paper considers the strategy of the 1998-99 Budget and its likely impact against the background of the state of the economy the finance minister inherited from his predecessor and then discusses some larger issues beyond the budget on which, in the author's opinion, policy debates in the days to come are increasingly likely to focus.

Foreign Capital in Asia-Pacific Region-Trends, Problems and Prospects

Trends, Problems and Prospects Alok Ray The role of foreign capital in economic development is no longer in doubt, particularly in view of the contribution that foreign capital made in the economic transfortmation of the south-east Asian economics.

External Sector Liberalisation in India

Alok Ray Opening up of the economy to forces of international competition-its timing, phasing and sequencing-has been the most controversial and least understood component of the liberalisation package in India. This paper attempts to clarify some of the major issues in external sector liberalisation with special reference to the Indian context.

Trade in Services for Developing Countries in 1990s-Problems and Prospects

Problems and Prospects Alok Ray A study of the problems and prospects of trade in services for developing countries in 1990s and beyond is important because the scope of traditional merchandise exports is likely to shrink for a variety of reasons whereas the importance of services is likely to increase, a strong degree of complementarity exists between an efficient manufacturing sector and an efficient services sector, many of the developing countries in Asia and Latin America have relatively cheap but highly skilled manpower which many service industries use intensively, the growth of the services sector would alleviate the acute problem of educated unemployed in such countries, and the services trade is likely to remain an intensely debated issue in GATT and other forums.

Economic Liberalisation in India-Balance of Payments Implications

In recent years, a gradual shift from import-substituting industrialisation under QR towards a more liberalised economic regime is beginning to take place in India. In this paper, we accept economic liberalisation (as being proposed in various official pronouncements of the government of India) as a policy objective and try to work out the contours of a policy package to accompany the liberalisation attempt so that it can be sustained in the long run. It is argued that the sustenance of liberalisation will rest crucially on whether our export earnings will increase sufficiently in the not-too-distant future. In this paper, the experience of other countries (particularly S Korea) along the path of economic liberalisation is reviewed. The empirical as well as theoretical analysis in this paper suggests that investment in export industries must be made more profitable relative to investment in import-substituting industries in order to encourage resource movements from import-substituting industries to export industries which is so essential for the long-term increase in export earnings and consequently for the sustenance of economic liberalisation over the long haul. With that end in view, the paper emphasises the crucial role of the exchange rate mechanism. In the specific Indian context, the paper brings together evidence to suggest that the economic regime in India is in fact biased against exports and urges for the use of the nominal exchange rate as a policy instrument to achieve and maintain an appropriate level of the purchasing-power-parity-adjusted effective exchange rate.

Towards a Micro Theory of Import Substitution

1 The Review of Metaphysics 24 (1971); cited by Quentin Skinner, Language and Social Change', in L Michaels and C Ricks (ed) "The State of the Language", University of California Press, 1979, p 576.

Measurement of Protection to Indian Industries and Its Implications

Measurement of Protection to Indian Industries and Its Implications Alok Ray Introduction TWO most notable studies on the structure of protection in Indian industries are the well-known works of Bhagawati-Desai (1970) (henceforth referred to as B-D) and Bhagawati- Srinivasan (1975) (henceforth referred to as B-S). The central message of these studies is that the extensive controls on trade and investment (which they call the QR-Regime) in India .have led to an enormously wide range of effective rates of protection (ERP) between different industries with no definite pattern and no sound economic rationale; that some of the ERPs tore enormously high in absolute values; and that the ERP structure is highly unstable and unpredictible over time.1 But a recent article by R G Nambiar in has apparently produced evidence to suggest that "tariffs and quantitative restrictions in general have no major distortional effects''. In view of these "conflicting" results which have important policy implications one is tempted to ask: (a) to what extent are the results really conflicting? (b) in cases of conflicts, what could be the source of the contradictions? and (c) what are the implications of the results?

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