ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles by Abhishek AnandSubscribe to Abhishek Anand

Impact of the Negative Interest Rate Policy on Emerging Asian Markets

In the last few years, several central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies to boost the domestic economy. However, such policies may have some unintended consequences for the emerging Asian markets. The analysis provides an assessment of the domestic and global implications of negative interest rate policy and how it differs from that of quantitative easing. It shows that the impact of nirp is heterogeneous, with differential impacts for big Asian economies (India and Indonesia) and small trade-dependent economies (Hong Kong, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand). Quantitative easing, on the other hand, has no significant impact on inflation but nominal gdp growth declines in eams. The currency appreciates and exports decline. The impact is much more severe in big emerging economies.

Paranoia or Prudence?

To assess whether the Reserve Bank of India is overcapitalised, two approaches are employed. First, the methodology and risk tolerance parameters used by major central banks are applied to the RBI’s balance sheet. Second, a simple cross-country econometric framework relating optimal capital to its possible determinants is used. Both suggest (conservatively) that the RBI has substantial excess capital—in excess of ₹4.5 lakh crore—which could be profitably deployed elsewhere, not for financing general government operations or the deficit but, for example, to recapitalise the public sector banks conditional on them being reformed.
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